2022-23 Atlantic Division projections; Leafs, Sens are risers, Panthers, Bruins are fallers
The Atlantic Division was one of the more top-heavy divisions in the NHL last season, with the Florida Panthers (122 points), Toronto Maple Leafs (115 points), Tampa Bay Lightning (110 points) and Boston Bruins (107 points) owning the top four spots completely uncontested. Just how much of a divide was there? Well, the 5th place Buffalo Sabres put up just 75 points with the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators nipping at their heels with 74 and 73 points, respectively. The lowly Montreal Canadiens sat in 8th, of course, with just 55 points.
However, that was 2021-22. In 2022-23, that divide should be narrowed substantially, due to improvements to the Atlantic's bottom four teams, most notably, the Ottawa Senators. Add to that the fact that the Boston Bruins are currently dealing with a number of significant injuries that have forced some very invasive surgeries that have very long recovery times attached and we have the recipe for a much different Atlantic Division standings next season.
The Florida Panthers lost the likes of Ben Chiarot, Joe Thornton, Noel Acciari, Claude Giroux, Mason Marchment, Robert Hagg and Marcus Nutivaara among others this summer and have not had a very strong offseason, though they did sign reclamation projects Rudolfs Balcers and Colin White in free agency, and brought in veteran Marc Staal and tendered a PTO offer to Eric Staal to join them for training camp. The Panthers league average goaltending in 2021-22 and did not really do anything to address any weaknesses there. Bobrovsky isn't getting any younger, so they'll have to count on Spencer Knight taking a major step forward this year.
The Toronto Maple Leafs dealt with some significant losses this offseason, losing Jack Campbell, Ilya Mikheyev, Ilya Lyubushkin, Ondrej Kase and Colin Blackwell to free agency and Jason Spezza to retirement. They have responded by trading for two-time Stanley Cup Champion Matt Murray in goal, and signing former Capitals top goaltending prospect Ilya Samsonov in free agency, which quite honestly, is probably an improvement over last year's Campbell/Mrazek tandem, who, in combination, were well below the league average and put together long stretches of absolutely abysmal goaltending. While there is a lot of pessimism around what this new Leafs tandem is going to be able to do, it quite literally couldn't have gotten much worse. If one or both of Murray and Samsonov can find their game or reach their full potential in Toronto, both of these acquisitions have serious boom potential. This could end up being one of the top tandems in the Division this season, and no, I'm not just saying that.
In addition, the Leafs have brought in forwards Calle Jarnkrok, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Adam Gaudette and defensemen Jordie Benn and Victor Mete thus far - and the Leafs appear far from done. The next boxes on their checklist are almost certainly re-signing RFA's Rasmus Sandin and Pierre Engvall so GM Kyle Dubas knows how much salary he'll have to clear from the roster to be cap compliant. Dubas has also stated that he prefers Sandin on his strong side (left), so we'll likely see a Jake Muzzin trade at some point this summer. In addition, there has been a lot of talk about the Leafs being in the market for an upgrade within their top six, so I'd imagine we'll see Alex Kerfoot moved out here at some point as well. The picture is not yet complete for the Leafs, but so far, Kyle Dubas is quietly having a pretty solid offseason.
The Boston Bruins, as I mentioned before, are dealing with injuries to the likes of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and Charlie McAvoy, among multiple others, which will keep several of their key players sidelined until after the season has begun. Some may not be back until Christmas or later, so I don't like their chances of challenging for the playoffs this season.
The Tampa Bay Lightning lost Ondrej Palat, Riley Nash, and Jan Rutta this summer, but have signed Haydn Fleury, Ian Cole and Vladislav Namestnikov, so they'll more or less likely be just as good as they were this past season, if not maybe take a marginal step back due to the loss of Palat, as he is undoubtedly better than Namestnikov.
The Ottawa Senators are the real wild card team here. The Sens made some some substantial moves this offseason, bringing in the likes of Claude Giroux, Alex DeBrincat and Cam Talbot to address needs both up front and in goal. These moves, combined with the natural growth of their very young core should provide the Sens with enough of a boost to close the gap on the Boston Bruins in the standings, especially with the injury issues in Boston.
The big question mark in Ottawa remains on the blue line. Coming into this season, the Sens appear to be running a D corps that consists of Thomas Chabot, Travis Hamonic, Artem Zub, Erik Brannstrom, Nick Holden and Nikita Zaitsev. There's also a chance that youngster Jake Sanderson is ready to make a push to join the NHL ranks, but nothing is a sure thing there at this point and he'll need a strong showing in camp to make the jump and steal a spot. The Sens also have Jacob Bernard-Docker and Lassi Thomson waiting in the wings for an opportunity. Nevertheless, this is a fairly underwhelming group - however, there is still plenty of time for GM Pierre Dorion to address that need this summer.
As for how the Atlantic Division could look next season, here are my projections:
1. Toronto Maple Leafs - 110 points (50-23-9)
2. Tampa Bay Lightning - 108 points (51-25-6)
3. Florida Panthers - 103 points (47-26-9)
4. Ottawa Senators - 98 points (44-28-10)
5. Boston Bruins - 95 points (43-30-9)
6. Detroit Red Wings - 84 points (38-36-8)
7. Buffalo Sabres - 79 points (36-39-7)
8. Montreal Canadiens - 66 points (30-46-6)
Obviously, it's tough to gauge just how much of an improvement will be made by Detroit, Buffalo and Montreal, but I'd imagine that all 3 teams will be better than they were last season simply due to prospect growth and development. I'm willing to bet that Montreal makes a pretty substantial 11-point jump with a healthy Carey Price though. As far as Toronto, Tampa and Florida all finishing with less points than they did last season, I'm banking on more competitive games in the Atlantic this season, hence, as I said before, it narrows the gap between the top 4 from the bottom 4 in the Atlantic Division standings.
| POLL | ||
JUILLET 16 | 591 ANSWERS 2022-23 Atlantic Division projections; Leafs, Sens are risers, Panthers, Bruins are fallers Do you think the Leafs will lead the Atlantic Division in 2022-23? | ||
| 100% | 252 | 42.6 % |
| No, it will be Tampa | 116 | 19.6 % |
| Florida will lead the Atlantic again | 105 | 17.8 % |
| None of the above | 118 | 20 % |
| List of polls | ||
