2022-23 Leafs season hot takes that may actually come to fruition
On Monday, a Twitter post from a Montreal Canadiens fan asking hockey fans to provide three hot takes for their favourite team for the upcoming season really picked up some steam and led to some very fun ideas from fans from different markets, with plenty of responses based around the Leafs.
Some of the hot takes ranged from Auston Matthews scoring 70 goals, to Mitch Marner winning the Art Ross Trophy as the league's points leader, to Morgan Rielly being a Norris Trophy Finalist, to Ilya Samsonov taking the reigns in goal and leading the Leafs to the third round.
I decided to toss out a trio of hot takes myself, but rather than being overly hot and completely unrealistic, I decided to keep them hot, but somewhat possible, given the state of the team and the expectations heading into the 2022-23 season. My 3 hot takes are:
1. The Leafs will win the Atlantic Division by at least 6 points
The Florida Panthers were the only team to finish ahead of the Leafs in the Atlantic last season - and that was before acquiring the Pacific Division's MVP (most valuable pest) in Matthew Tkachuk. With that said, losing Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar will undoubtedly have an impact on the Panthers from not only a chemistry standpoint with all of the lineup changes that it forces, but also because the identity of the team is now entirely different. I'm not sure they're any better than they were last season. The Leafs, however, just might be - especially if the moves in goal work out for the Buds.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are coming off of their third consecutive Stanley Cup Finals. Playing so much hockey so late into the season year over year has its drawbacks - namely, exhaustion. In addition, the Bolts made a significant deduction from their lineup in top-4 defender Ryan McDonagh. Granted, they still have Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and the biggest x-factor there is in Andrei Vasilevskiy, but they weren't better than the Leafs last season, and they aren't likely going to be better this season either.
The Boston Bruins are dealing with more than their fair share of injuries to key players who will likely miss several months of actions. If they fall back early, there may not be enough runway left to come all the way back later on in the season. As for the Sens.. too much to prove to see them pushing to lead an ultra-tough Atlantic Division.
2. Nick Robertson scores 25 goals, 55 points in his first full season
Robertson may have already been an NHL mainstay were it not for his unfortunate injury history. His shot is absolutely NHL-caliber and his work ethic and attitude are exceptional. The 2019 53rd overall pick may not start the season in a top-6 role, but if he can remain healthy, he very well may finish the season in one.
25 goals may seem like it's pretty easily attainable for a player who possesses the type of shot that Robertson has, but if he doesn't begin the season in a scoring role, it may take him awhile to get going. Even if he does work his way up to the 2nd line LW with John Tavares and William Nylander, it's a reasonable expectation that JT and Willy will still own the lion's share of the shooting opportunities. Also, 55 points for a first full year player is actually not very common - especially for a 2nd round pick.
3. Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov will both be .912 or better this season
For one reason or another, a large contingent of Leafs Nation seems to view going from Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek to Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov a bit of a downgrade and a risky play, despite the fact that, aside from November, the Leafs largely had to endure sub .900 goaltending and yet still finished 4th overall.
Granted, both Murray and Samsonov have struggled in recent years, but both showed signs of life last season, with Murray actually being a .920 goaltender through 18 games before a rough 2-game stretch and a concussion derailed his season, leaving him at a mediocre .906 SV% with the Sens. Samsonov, on the other hand, posted a .912 SV% in 5 playoff games against the Presidents Trophy winning Florida Panthers. While the Caps still lost the series, Samsonov was solid against one of the league's most potent offenses.
The Leafs' had higher ranked defense than both the Caps and the Sens last season, so it would be logical to expect that both Murray and Samsonov will have every opportunity to post more competitive numbers next season, since the Leafs' defense corps is largely the same.
The way I worded this take, with both goaltenders posting a .912 SV% or better this season is meant to suggest that one goaltender will hover at around .912 while the other will actually be much higher. To make this take just a little bit hotter, I'll go ahead and elaborate. I expect Matt Murray to rebound nicely and post somewhere in the neighborhood of a .912 SV%. Samsonov, on the other hand, I'll predict a .917 SV% this season. Just for reference purposes, only 7 starting goaltenders posted a higher SV% last season (Shesterkin, Sorokin, Andersen, Markstrom, Kuemper, Jarry, Saros).
| POLL | ||
AOUT 2 | 401 ANSWERS 2022-23 Leafs season hot takes that may actually come to fruition Which has the highest likelihood of happening for the Leafs this season? | ||
| Leafs win the Atlantic by 3 games or more | 120 | 29.9 % |
| Robertson scores 25G, 30A for 55P or better | 77 | 19.2 % |
| Both Murray/Samsonov post a .912 SV% or higher | 204 | 50.9 % |
| List of polls | ||
