Analytics expert ranks Toronto's off season 31st in the league
The NHL's free agency window is always chaotic. Teams can go from pretenders to contenders in the blink of an eye, or handcuff themselves to a bad deal for years to come. Ideally, you want to see your team improve without compromising their long term salary cap outlook. It's a tough line to walk, and according to the Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn, Kyle Dubas and the Leafs did not do a good job of it this off season.
The Leafs let free agents Ilya Mikheyev, Jack Campbell, Colin Blackwell, Ondrej Kase and Ilya Lyubushkin walk to new teams when free agency opened. They also dealt Petr Mrazek's deal to the Blackhawks at the draft. To replace them, Matt Murray, Ilya Samsonov, Calle Jarnkrok, Nicolas Aube-Kubel and Adam Gaudette we're added to the roster. According to Luszczyszyn's model, the Leafs lost 4.1 total wins with their moves so far.
I disagree with this assessment. According to Luszczyszyn, the loss of Ilya Mikheyev was the biggest for the Leafs. Mikheyev is a good player, but not worth near the $4.75 million the Canucks are now paying him. He and Kase are both extremely injury prone as well, which I don't believe Dom's model takes into account. Goaltending is another area where the model states the Leafs regressed. Losing Campbell hurts, but the truth is that the Leafs spent most of last season winning despite their goaltending. Campbell was inconsistent at best and Mrazek was completely unplayable. Murray and Samsonov are both goaltenders with extremely high ceilings as far as their level of play is concerned, and both know their careers are on the line this season.
As far as the NHL regular season goes, it's extremely difficult to improve upon a 115-point campaign. According to Luszczyszyn, the Leafs still rank among the league's elite teams per his model. Those claiming the Leafs will have a hard time making the playoffs are simply being sensational or trolling. This is and will be a top 1-3rd of the league team this season. If they get solid goaltending from Murray and Samsonov they'll likely be top 3 in the NHL.
The full write up on all 32 teams is available here:
