Breaking down the Matt Murray to Toronto trade; it wasn't just the Sens who were dealing out of necessity
Following the Matt Murray trade to the Leafs on Monday evening, Leafs Nation sighed collectively at the incoming package, which admittedly appeared very underwhelming upon first glance. I think that may have had something to do with Sens fans working themselves into a frenzy over the thought of GM Pierre Dorion parting with a solid young piece like Shane Pinto, Tyler Boucher or even a first round pick. With all of these potential sweeteners flying around, it probably set the bar higher than what the true return was ever going to be.
The Leafs essentially were handed a two-time Stanley Cup winning goaltender for free, along with a couple of free draft picks (3rd in 2023, 7th in 2024) in exchange for what likely will amount to nothing under the guise of "future considerations". There's really not a lot to hate about that when you take a step back and really think about it. The issue that most have with the deal though is that the Senators did not eat 50% of Murray's $6.25M cap hit, which likely would have resulted in the Leafs receiving no supplementary compensation in the deal, so maybe it's for the best this way. Instead, the Leafs nabbed Murray at 25% retained, or $4.68M per season through 2023-24, which is less than what they may have been forced to pay Jack Campbell and over a longer term.
But should the deal have been better? Since the Senators were basically bent over the barrel, unable to buy out Murray due to his current injury, should the Leafs have been able to land Murray at 50% retained AND receive a premium sweetener in the deal? A lot of Leafs fans are of the mindset that they should have been able to, but there is something here that many are not really considering.
The market for goaltenders has been shrinking by the day and took a significant turn towards majority resolution during draft week and over the weekend. As of right now, there are really only two UFA goalies available who are likely to be starters or 1A options somewhere next season in Jack Campbell and Darcy Kuemper - and both are expected to get PAID on Wednesday. Above and beyond that, they may already be promised to other clubs, with Kuemper being linked to the Washington Capitals (who traded Vitek Vanecek last week and left Ilya Samsonov without a qualifying offer on Monday, which will send him to free agency on Wednesday) and Campbell being linked to the Edmonton Oilers (Koskinen headed back to Europe and Mike Smith set to retire).
Ultimately, if the Leafs were already out of the running for these two netminders, the Sens had some leverage of their own during these negotiations. Plain and simple, the Leafs needed a goaltender. As much as people want to believe that trading for a starter is as simple as picking up the phone and offering a package of spare parts, it just doesn't work that way. There are, in a lot of cases, NTC's, NMC's and other hurdles that need to be considered, such as cap space, and the organizational needs of the teams with whom the Leafs would be bargaining.
The Leafs and Sens both came into these negotiations from a position of weakness and they both chose to help each other out. It's almost as though we should be considering this situation as two entering into a completely neutral negotiation, since the both the Leafs and Sens were dealing out of necessity - and when you do that, the deal doesn't look so bad. The Leafs end up with 3 free pieces and the Sens buy back a significant chunk of cap space. If you look at it from that perspective, the deal is a far more digestible one.
In the end, the Leafs acquired a goaltender that they know and like. A goaltender who has had success in the past and a goaltender who had shown signs of life this past season, albeit in an 18-game sample. Plus, when you consider Pierre LeBrun's report from Monday night that the Leafs are still expected to pursue some additional goaltending help in free agency on Wednesday, maybe this whole Matt Murray situation is not as underwhelming as it had originally seemed.
