Debunking the theory the Leafs have regressed in net
Last season both Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray played behind worse defensive teams than the Leafs. The Leafs gave up the fourth fewest high danger scoring chances/shots in the league while the Capitals and Senators were 9th and 24th respectively. Additionally, the Oilers were 10th in high danger shots against.
Between the Oilers and Leafs, the Leafs gave up the fewest scoring chances against per 60 minutes. Defensively, the Oilers gave up many more goals against per game and overall scoring chances (5-on-5) on the season. With losing Jack Campbell to the Edmonton "Maple Leafs", everyone believes the Buds have downgraded in net. That however, is not the case.
Only once last season between Otcober and March did Jack Campbell post a save percentage above .900 in any given month. November was the outlier, where he was stellar and produced a collective .953 SV%. Other than that, he failed to crack the .900 mark in each of October, December, January, February and March. Outside of November and a few games in January where Petr Mrazek was actually fairly good in a handful of starts, Ilya Samsonov posted a better save percentage in every other month of the season over Campbell.
While he didn't play nearly as many games as Samsonov and Campbell, Murray had a save percentage over .920 in 3 months of the season playing behind a very weak Senators defense. Unfortunately, 2 rough outings followed by an injury tainted his overall numbers and reduced him to a .906, even though he played to a much higher standard than his overall numbers might indicate.
In Edmonton, Campbell will be playing behind a weaker defense and forwards that are not as defensively responsible as Auston Matthews, John Tavares and even David Kampf. Matt Murray on the other hand will be going from one of the weakest defenses to one of the league's better ones. Samsonov will be playing in front of a defense similar to that of Washington's, but will have much more offense in front of him.
For context, let's look at comparable sample sizes for Samsonov and Campbell in last year's playoffs:
Ilya Samsonov in the 2022 Playoffs:
5 games: .912 SV%, 2.97 GAA, 0.3 goals saved above expected
Jack Campbell in the 2022 Playoffs:
7 games: .897 SV%, 3.15 GAA, -1.1 goals saved above expected
As you can see, Samsonov performed very well in the playoffs, while Campbell struggled and couldn't provide the Leafs with even average goaltending, which is all the Leafs really would have needed to beat the Lightning.
The Leafs are taking a chance on two goalies looking to rebound, but one is only 25 and the other has 2 cups to his name already. Samsonov has played almost the same amount of games as Campbell in 5 less years and Murray has over 100 more games of experience and is 2 years younger.
It will be tough for Campbell to duplicate his success in Edmonton playing behind a team with less defensive structure than the Leafs while Murray and Samsonov should be able to regain their form in the blue and white due to an improved defensive presence. They'll also both likely put together a better win/loss ratio playing behind a superior and more well-balanced offense than they're used to seeing in Ottawa and Washington.
| POLL | ||
JUILLET 27 | 540 ANSWERS Debunking the theory the Leafs have regressed in net Who will post a better record for the Leafs between Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov? | ||
| Murray | 211 | 39.1 % |
| Samsonov | 329 | 60.9 % |
| List of polls | ||
