Estimating Jack Campbell's next contract
In the 2022 off-season, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have to make a decision with regards to whom will guard their net for the foreseeable future, and to put it lightly, there's a bunch of loaded questions surrounding their crease.
With what's left of the season, does Mrazek play his way back into the conversation? Or does he become a candidate for a potential trade or a buyout? My money is on one of the latter possibilities, but anything is possible.
At the rate he's going, if they hope to retain Campbell past this season, the Leafs may be forced to make a trade to clear out the required cap space. That seems pretty much inevitable at this point.
Campbell projects to make at least 3-4 times his current salary ($1.65 million) on his next deal. This would slot him in between $4.95 million and $6.6 million per season. It's with this in mind that I've opted to take a closer look at the numbers for those currently being paid in that range.
Comparables include John Gibson ($6.4M), Connor Hellebuyck ($6.166M), Jordan Binnington ($6M), Philip Grubauer ($5.9M) and Linus Ullmark ($5M). I've removed Matt Murray (terrible team), Jacob Markstrom (Already 31), Johnathan Quick (aged 35), Shesterkin, Demko and Saros (all are 26), Robin Lehner (unique situation) and Frederik Andersen (aged 32).
In their contract years, Gibson and Binnington both had good numbers, but so far Jack is outplaying them. Ullmark also had some run of the mill numbers, however you can place an asterisk next to that since he was playing behind an underperforming Buffalo squad.
That leaves Hellebuyck (44-11-9, .924, 6 SO) and Grubauer (30-9-1, .922, 1.95 GAA) as the closest comparables. This likely places Jack firmly into the higher $5M's or lower $6M's in terms of salary cap hit beginning next season.
I've always been partial to Leafs goalies, and in my life have been able to see Potvin, Belfour, Cujo, Reimer and Andersen in blue and white. Campbell is no exception to this trend. However, with the way he's playing (16-5-2, .939 SV%, 1.86 GAA and 4 SO to this point), I'm not so sure I'll be spending the money on a Jack Campbell jersey until he officially puts pen to paper and the Leafs announce a contract extension.
