Here's how Auston Matthews will need to produce over the next 65 games to reach last year's totals
For Auston Matthews, the 2021-22 season was one where he could seemingly do no wrong. Though he only suited up in 73 games thanks to a pair of injuries and a 2-game suspension, he still managed to produce 60 goals and 106 points. It was undoubtedly the best single season in his career and one of the best seasons of any Leaf - arguably the best single season in franchise history when you consider all of the hardware he skated away with. Auston's spoils included his second consecutive Rocket Richard Trophy, his first career Hart Trophy and his first career Ted Lindsay Award.
So far in 2022-23, Matthews' game has left a lot to be desired. While he has picked up the physicality tremendously, he has been snake-bitten when it comes to finding the back of the net, shooting a career low 9.1% through 17 games and is below 50% in the faceoff dot for the first time since his rookie season. Simply put, Matthews needs to be better.
Now, in saying that, Matthews is still sitting at a point per game, with 17 points in 17 games and he does have 7 goals to his credit. When you can score like Auston Matthews can, there's certainly plenty of room to make up some ground. We should also acknowledge that Matthews is exactly where he was at this point last season, with 7 goals through his first 17 games. He finished with 60 goals.
Now for the math. Matthews has 65 games left this season if he plays in all 82 games. He would need 53 goals through the next 65 games in order to reach 60 once again. In terms of points, Matthews would need to register 89 points in his next 65 games to reach 106 points. That's a 1.37 points-per-game pace. Matthews produced at a 1.45 points-per-game pace last season, meaning that it's still well within the realm of possibility that Matthews meets or exceeds last year's totals, even with his perceived slow start.
Look - we all know that Auston is not going to shoot at 9.1% all season long. How do we know that, exactly? Well, a pretty good indicator that he'll figure it out is his career 16.1 shooting percentage. Matthews averaged 4.77 shots per game last season. So far this season, he is averaging 4.53 shots per game - so he's not all that far off in terms of shooting volume. He simply needs some time to get dialed in and get comfortable within his wheelhouse again. The bottom line here is that, given what we know, it's a pretty safe assumption that Matthews will be completely fine and is very likely to begin to gain some ground in the league's scoring race. He's looked better of late, so there's a pretty good chance that a surge is coming.
| POLL | ||
NOVEMBRE 16 | 248 ANSWERS Here's how Auston Matthews will need to produce over the next 65 games to reach last year's totals Will Auston Matthews match or exceed last year's 60 goals and 106 points? | ||
| Yes | 43 | 17.3 % |
| No, but he'll come close | 143 | 57.7 % |
| No, it won't even be close | 62 | 25 % |
| List of polls | ||
