Of the Lightning's 10 opponents over the last 3 playoffs, the Leafs are the only team to have broken 20 goals against the Bolts and were the only team to outscore Tampa in a series. Have a look at the chart below to see how Tampa has faired against the competition over the last 3 postseasons.
Leafs fans often refer to the team as "cursed", and given what we saw during this year's round 1 series against Tampa, it's difficult to argue to the contrary. All things equal, especially the officiating, the Leafs had a very high probability of sending the Bolts packing in round 1. It's just tough to see the numbers and to realize how close they actually were to breaking the curse. There's always next year.