The Dobson and Romanov contracts in Long Island could spell disaster for the Leafs in the Sandin negotiations
Yesterday, Lou Lamoriello emerged from his annual summer hibernation to sign 3 contracts. Kieffer Bellows got a 1-year, $1.2M deal, Alexander Romanov inked a 3-year deal paying $2.5M per season, and Noah Dobson signed a 3-year deal paying $4M per year. Of course, anytime anything happens in the NHL, the immediate question is, "How does this impact the Leafs?"
With Dobson and Romanov both being RFA defensemen, they are now comparables for Rasmus Sandin and his contract negotiations. It seems that Sandin and agent Lewis Gross were totally unwilling to sign a deal similar to that of Timothy Liljegren's 2 year deal that pays a miserly $1.4M per season. Now Gross, the agent behind the infamous William Nylander holdout of 2018, has 2 more contracts to use as ammunition at the bargaining table.
First, lets look at the hard numbers here. The counting stats between Romanov, Dobson and Sandin.
Sandin:
Romanov:
Dobson:
Important to note here are obviously goals and points, but also ATOI, or Average Time On Ice. For a defenseman to be able to command big bucks, they need to be trusted to log heavy minutes. Dobson and Romanov were both trusted with a lot more minutes last season than Sandin, who averaged nearly 5 minutes per game fewer than Dobson. This makes sense, as the Leafs had a much stronger left side ahead of Sandin than the Habs or Islanders had in front of Romanov and Dobson last season. To truly break down the differences in value between the 3, one must take a look at the results while they were on the ice.
For simplicity, we will use Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic's player cards as a reference.
Sandin
Romanov
Dobson
As you can see, Sandin's value is much closer to that of Dobson than Romanov while he's on the ice. His offensive numbers aren't quite what Dobson's are, but his defensive numbers are better. Romanov may not be getting a fair shake here, since the Habs were truly awful last season and I can't imagine many players on that team had good metrics in any way.
As for what this means at the negotiating table, the real problem for the Leafs here is the Romanov deal. There is very little argument outside of hits thrown that Romanov should be making anywhere near what Sandin ends up with. Sandin doesn't put up the offensive or powerplay numbers that Dobson does, so he can't quite command what the Isles defender can. If we are using these 2 contracts as comparables, it seems that Sandin would fall somewhere in the middle, around $3M-$3.5M AAV on a 3 to 4 year deal.
One thing that does set Romanov and Dobson apart is their ability to play the right side. This is very important as right shot defensemen are among the hardest players to find in the NHL. Sandin has had very limited minutes with little success on the right. This is the biggest issue in these negotiations. Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin and Mark Giordano are all expected to play on the left side for the next 2 seasons. Sandin must either shift to the right, or the Leafs will have to move one of those 3. Rielly isn't going anywhere as he's just signed an 8 year extension, and Giordano's $800,000 AAV is far too valuable to give up, so it would have to be Muzzin being moved if the Leafs were to make room for Sandin. With Cap space at the premium, Muzzin's 5.625M AAV will be difficult to move without giving up assets - plus there's the little matter of his full NTC.
At this point, it seems that the only way Sandin is a Leaf next season is if he plays on the right side or accepts his fate as the 7th defenseman and awaits an opportunity in the event of an injury. Kyle Dubas has publicly stated that he wants to avoid having Sandin play on his weak side. He has also stated that both Sandin and Liljegren are a huge part of Toronto's future on defense. My bet? There is a big move brewing, whether it involves Sandin staying or leaving, I'm not sure. But we do know that the clock is ticking until the puck drops on the 2022-23 season and the Leafs still have work to do.
The roster as it stands is not cap compliant, has 8 defensemen under contract and badly needs an upgrade at 2LW. We are not looking at the final product just yet, and until Dubas decides what Sandin's future is, it will be impossible predict what the opening night lineup will be.
| POLL | ||
AOUT 23 | 445 ANSWERS The Dobson and Romanov contracts in Long Island could spell disaster for the Leafs in the Sandin negotiations What is a reasonable cap hit for Rasmus Sandin on a 2-3 year bridge deal? | ||
| $1.4M-$1.75M | 120 | 27 % |
| $1.8M-$2.2M | 217 | 48.8 % |
| $2.3M-$2.75M | 80 | 18 % |
| $2.8M-$3.5M | 28 | 6.3 % |
| List of polls | ||
