The narrative that the Leafs are in ''cap hell'' is a farce; nearly one third of NHL teams are in worse shape
We've all been in conversation with someone at one point or another and have had the term "cap hell" or "salary cap hell" come up in relation to the Leafs, particularly after the Matthews and Marner contracts were signed. Well, here we are years later and that narrative hasn't gone anywhere. The question is, is it even accurate anymore?
Leafs GM Kyle Dubas has done an excellent job in clearing out problematic contracts since taking over for Lou Lamoriello and Mark Hunter. With the help of Assistant GM Brandon Pridham, the Leafs have also found ways to make incremental improvements year over year to improve the financial state of the club, which leads us into this offseason.
The Leafs currently have 17/23 players signed through next season on the roster. They'll need to sign at least 4 more players to get to a point where they can run a 21-man roster. With no more than 5 consecutive road games during any stretch of the season, the Leafs are in a good position to be able to run with a 20 or 21-man roster if they so choose, given the close proximity of their AHL affiliate, the Toronto Marlies. But, honestly, they may not even need to worry about that.
According to CapFriendly, the Leafs currently have a little over $10.2M in available cap space heading into free agency. They'll need to trade for (or sign) at least one goaltender, and then the hope beyond that is that they can also afford to form a brand new fourth line and secure an upgrade within the top six.
There are currently two NHL teams who are actually over the salary cap as we speak (which is fine, due to the fact that teams are able to exceed the cap by as much as 10% during the offseason). Those teams are Vegas and Tampa Bay. In addition, Philadelphia is also right up against the cap, with just over $118,000 in available cap space. Of course, this is all before LTIR relief comes into play, but I digress.
Beyond the Golden Knights, Lightning and Flyers, the Leafs still sit behind 7 more NHL clubs in terms of the projected cap space per player that they can spend. Those 7 teams are Florida, Minnesota, Montreal, Vancouver, Los Angeles, New York (Rangers) and Edmonton. As it stands, if the Leafs wanted to roll with a 23-man roster, they'd be able to spend around $1.7M per player on average. That amount increases to about $2.56M per player if they roll with a 21-man roster and $3.41M per player if they go with 20 players.
The Leafs are expected to have a few ELC players in the lineup this season, which increases the amount they can spend on the players they bring in. That's not to mention what would happen if they replaced Justin Holl and Alex Kerfoot with cheaper options as well. After all, what's the use in paying a combined $5.5M for a 3rd line winger and a depth defenseman?
It's well beyond time that people begin to realize that the Dubas/Pridham regime has a way better grasp on the financial side of the game than the more tenured Lou Lamoriello ever did. We're seeing the effects of his "money management skills" in Long Island now.
We all know that the Leafs will need to shell out some serious cap dollars on a number one goalie this summer, but even if that eats up half of the Leafs' current available $10.2M or more, there are plenty of ways for the Buds to open up additional space without making their team worse or subtracting from their core.
Rest easy, Leafs fans. The team is finally in good hands in terms of both spending and drafting. They've also reached a point where the team is playing well enough to be setting records and finishing among the league leaders in scoring, special teams and in a position of being able to potentially even challenge for the Presidents Trophy. This summer will be an important one, but the team finally has the flexibility it needs to be able to make some noise in the offseason without subtracting anything substantial from the current roster.
