There's no arguing with the numbers; Tavares and Nylander need a better winger than Alex Kerfoot this season
For stretches of games last season, including the playoffs, we saw Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe attempt to spread the Leafs' "Core 4" across three lines. The first line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Michael Bunting was obviously not an issue and at times the third line with David Kampf, Pierre Engvall and William Nylander drove play but didn't capitalize on all their chances. The biggest issue was the revolving door of wingers that John Tavares saw on the second line when he was not paired with Nylander and the lack of offensive ability and defensive struggles.
With Nylander alongside Tavares, the line had an expected goals for per 60 minutes of 3.26. Without Nylander, Tavares line only produced an xGF/60 of 3.06, but without Tavares, Nylander was producing at a rate of 3.15 xGF/60. The biggest question, if Keefe keeps Nylander and Tavares together, is who should play on their other wing? It should not, by any mean, be Alex Kerfoot. As much as Keefe likes him, while putting up a career high of 51 points, Kerfoot's underlying numbers left much to be desired.
With Kerfoot on a line with Nylander and Tavares, the line produced an xGF/60 of 3.01, but without Kerfoot, the Nylander and Tavares line produced an xGF/60 of 3.68. Talk about being dead weight. Without Kerfoot, Tavares and Nylander were generating almost an extra goal more per 60 minutes.
The key for Keefe heading into the season will be finding a winger for Nylander and Tavares. The best bet would be to give Nick Robertson more than a couple of games in that spot and let him build on the end to last season in the AHL and gain some confidence in the NHL after back to back injury-plagued seasons. The other option is to deal Kerfoot and bring in someone who may better compliment the JT/Willy duo.
| POLL | ||
9 AOUT | 416 ANSWERS There's no arguing with the numbers; Tavares and Nylander need a better winger than Alex Kerfoot this season Who will start the season with Nylander and Tavares? | ||
| Kerfoot | 96 | 23.1 % |
| Robertson | 176 | 42.3 % |
| Engvall | 44 | 10.6 % |
| A signing/trade will bring someone in | 100 | 24 % |
| List of polls | ||
