Who stays and who goes? Looking beyond the 2021-22 NHL season

Following this season, the Leafs have nine pending UFA and nine RFA contracts to look at. Notable UFA's include Ilya Mikheyev, who will surely command a raise from his current $1.645M cap hit, along with recently acquired Mark Giordano, Ilya Lyubushkin, and starting goaltender Jack Campbell. With roughly $74M already spoken for next season, expect significant roster changes to be made.

With the success that Lyubushkin has had in Toronto, I could see him coming back for a minimal pay increase. Giordano seems like a prime candidate to sign a 1-year, league minimum deal to remain at home next season, but Mikheyev is probably a goner.

Jack Campbell, on more than one occasion, has gushed about playing in the city of Toronto. He loves the city, he loves his teammates, and he appears to be a candidate who may want to stay. That said, it's all going to come down to money, as often things do. If Campbell's ask is reasonable, I'd expect the Leafs to take a chance on him. If the 30-year-old comes back and returns to Vezina-caliber Jack Campbell and leads the Leafs to some playoff success or even a Stanley Cup Finals appearance, then the Leafs may have a hard time keeping his cap hit low enough for a deal to make sense.

The Petr Mrazek signing has proven a flop to this point. Moving his $3.8M cap hit out would provide breathing room to stabilize the team's depth. However, it doesn't solve the team's goaltending problems. In addition, trading out Alexander Kerfoot's $3.5M contract for a final season looks more appealing by the day. While Kerfoot is versatile, his finishing ability in the top-6 has been underwhelming. That said, Kerfoot can fetch a handsome return elsewhere, so it may be time to trade him while his value is high.

As for the RFA's, Pierre Engvall, Ondrej Kase, Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren have all played key roles in a very strong Leafs season. With Sandin and Liljegren being relatively inexperienced and also ineligible for salary arbitration, we can expect their salaries to remain very low. A bridge deal is almost certain for both blueliners. With Kase and Engvall, however, both are arbitration eligible and have made cases for themselves as to why they may deserve a pay increase. As sad as it is to say it, I think we can probably kiss one or both of Engvall/Kase goodbye this summer.

The real question is whether the Leafs will choose to move out one of the "core four" contracts. Further, the most likely contract to move out � is William Nylander. While streaky at times and often invisible defensively, Nylander is a very good winger with a very reasonable $6.9M cap hit. But if the team hopes to re-tool and remain cap-compliant, casualties are unavoidable.

It's "win or bust" for most of Leafs Nation this season. Additionally, the NHL salary cap is only expected to raise $1M next year to a total of $82.5M. The flat cap continues to challenge a club with championship aspirations. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, Leafs fans,
and prepare for the team's makeover this summer. It's almost certainly coming.