Why the Leafs' next two 1st round picks might be up for grabs
NHL GM's, at large, are not cookie cutter general managers. Everyone seems to have a particular way that they like to do things and not all GM's possess the same strengths. For some, they're great at negotiating contracts. For others, their ability to seemingly always come out on the right side of a hockey trade is their claim to fame. Some even excel at evaluating talent and maximizing the value of their draft picks by plucking gems beyond the first round. You can count Leafs GM Kyle Dubas into the third category.
In my opinion, Kyle Dubas' drafting outside of the first round makes the Leafs 2022 and 2023 1st round picks more expendable at the upcoming trade deadline. The Leafs have been linked to many prominent players that are likely to be available to the trade deadline. Defenders, Ben Chiarot and Josh Manson as well as Flyers captain Claude Giroux have all been linked to the Leafs as potential rental options. They're also believed to have kicked tires on both John Klingberg and Jakob Chychrun.
All of these players will likely cost at least a first round pick - due to multiple teams having interest in their services. Even if the Leafs went for a player with term such as Damon Severson or Jakob Chychrun, the Leafs will likely give up their first round pick and a haul of prospects. Kyle Dubas has traded his first round pick in 3 of the 4 seasons that he's been Leafs GM. Whether it be to address team needs and acquire Jake Muzzin and Nick Foligno or offloading Patrick Marleau's contract, Dubas is no stranger to trading his first round pick.
Fortunately for the Leafs, their drafting outside of the first round has provided the organization with many players that project to be contributing NHL players in the near future. As a result of that, the Leafs' 2022 first round pick is an expendable asset at the trade deadline.
Since Dubas became general manager in 2018, players he's drafted outside of the 1st round have played a combined 35 NHL games. 26 of which are by L.A. Kings defenceman Sean Durzi who was traded by the Leafs in the Jake Muzzin trade. That looks bad at first but it's important to remember that prospects take time to develop. The number would also be higher if Nick Robertson did not battle the injuries that he has over the past two seasons.
The Leafs have had some World Junior standouts over the past few seasons, 3 of whom were drafted outside of the first round. The Leafs have a pair of Finnish prospects in Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemela, who both had strong showings at the 2021 World Juniors and were primed for an even stronger performance before the 2022 tournament was cancelled in December. Hirvonen is an excellent two-way centre. He is strong in all 3 zones and has excelled while playing against grown men in the Finnish Liiga. With the way he's played, Hirvonen could step into a regular role with the Marlies in the coming seasons and could be a David Kampf replacement for the Leafs when the time is right. Meanwhile, Niemela has emerged as one of the Leafs' best defensive prospects. Niemela is top-20 in Finnish Liiga scoring as a 19-year-old and he even missed time because he was on loan at the World Juniors. A puck moving right-handed defenceman, Niemela could be a big part of the Leafs' blueline for a long time.
A prospect that the Leafs seem to have hit the jackpot on is 2021 second round pick, Matthew Knies. The University of Minnesota forward is ranked as the 3rd best offensive forward in the NCAA. A big power forward, Knies is having an outstanding season for Minnesota. He has 25 points in 26 games this year and is a type of prospect that Leafs fans have been salivating for for quite some time. Knies, 19, is currently suiting up for Team USA at the 2022 Winter Olympics.
Along with them - the Leafs have gotten some potential steals in the later rounds. Nick Abruzzese, a 2019 4th round pick has been excellent at Harvard and is a teammate of Knies' at the Olympics. Meanwhile, 2020 7th round pick Ryan Tverberg, a 7th round pick, nearly made a stacked Team Canada at the World Juniors.
The Leafs prospect pool doesn't feature future superstars like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner but no team that is consistently drafting outside the top-10 has a pool like that. Not to mention, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Liljegren and Sandin are all 25 and under. The ability to hit on prospects beyond the first round is very beneficial to any team who hopes to have a long contention window. It's even more important for teams who play up near the top of the salary cap.
Ultimately we won't know how these players' careers will pan out until they reach the NHL. That being said, seeing what the Leafs have been able to find outside of the first round, their 2022 1st round pick should be on the move at or ahead of the March 21st trade deadline.
