Why the William Nylander contract is vastly superior to recently signed post-ELC deals
Back in 2018, William Nylander held out until the last possible moment when he finally decided to sign a 6-year, $45M extension with the Leafs. With a cap hit of $6.96M per season, many people at the time thought it was too much for Nylander and that Kyle Dubas gave into Nylander's demands. At the time, Nylander was coming off of back to back 20+ goal, 60+ point campaigns, which is pretty good for a second and third year player. Nylander currently has just 2 years left on his deal before he has the option to test the free agent market - one left until becoming eligible to sign a massive extension with the Leafs. That's a discussion for another day, but for now, let's take a look at some recently signed contracts by players around the same age as Nylander was when he signed his long-term contract and compare their dollar value to their production.
One thing of note, the salary cap at the time of Nylander's contract being signed was $79.5M and has only risen $3M since due to COVID-19, so those contracts that have been recently signed, are not overly inflated due to the cap rising. Not only will we be looking at the cap hit, length and total salary of the deals, but we will also be looking at the cap hit percentage at the time of signing as this gives us a more comparable number to Nylander.
William Nylander: signed at age 22, AAV - $6.96M, Cap Hit % - 8.76.
As we mentioned above, when Nylander signed his current contract, he was coming off of two 61-point seasons. At the time, the contract may have been a bit of an overpay, but given his production in those two seasons prior, the Leafs had a baseline of what to expect production wise during the life of the contract. Since signing, Nylander has cracked the 30-goal mark twice and just set a career high in points with 80. Not only has Nylander lived up to and exceeded his contract during the regular season, but he has also posted 19 points in 19 playoff games. Additionally, if you look at the cap hit percentage of Nylander, compared to the other players listed below, you'll see that he is by far the lowest.
Tim Stutzle: Signed at age 21, AAV - $8.35M, Cap Hit % - 10.12.
Stutzle has 1 year remaining on his entry level deal before his massive extension kicks in and the Sens need to hope that he will produce and not stagnate, given the heft of his newly signed contract. In two seasons with the Sens, Stutzle has produced at a much lower rate than Nylander did when he signed his contract. Stutzle has posted a total of 34 goals and 87 points since entering the league, with most of his production coming last year in a 22-goal, 58-point campaign. Stutzle's cap hit percentage is almost 1.5% higher than Nylander while producing 35 less points. Clearly, the Sens are betting on Stutzle's potential, and his ability to play center, which is understandable, but if he doesn't meet their expectations this deal could look very bad very quickly.
Kevin Fiala: Signed at age 25, AAV - $7.85M, Cap Hit % - 9.55.
Fiala only signed his first big, long-term contract this off-season, so he is a bit older than Nylander at the time of signing. Before his career high 33-goal, 85-point season, Fiala had only topped 50 points once, but has been able to crack the 20-goal mark in each of the past 3 years. Given the fact that the deal takes Fiala into his 30's, the Kings are betting that Fiala has finally reached his potential and can continue to be a major contributor offensively for them throughout the course of his deal and through the entirety of his prime. The last couple of seasons of the deal could become troublesome as Fiala ages, but he has always been an above average skater so he may not lose a step. In terms of cap hit percentage, it is almost one percent higher than Nylander's deal even though Fiala has only topped 60 points once.
Patrick Laine: Signed at age 24, AAV - $8.7M, Cap Hit % - 10.55.
Laine's contract is a bit more complex in comparison, given that he has been all over the map with production since arriving in the NHL. If you remember, there was a season in which Laine scored 20+ goals in the month of November and then only scored a handful the rest of the year. His new deal is only a 4-year contract that walks him to free agency, so it also differs in that regard. Laine has been productive over his career, but only plays the wing and his defensive coverage certainly needs work, not unlike Nylander. Laine has always been paid to score goals, but has struggled in doing so the past few seasons, posting 12 and 26 goals - although he was a point-per-game player in 56 games last season. With a cap hit percentage almost two whole percent higher than Nylander, more holes in his defensive game and struggling to score, Laine's deal will either miss massively or will be a bargain now that he is playing with Johnny Gaudreau.
Nick Suzuki: Signed at age 23, AAV - $7.875M, Cap Hit % - 9.66.
Suzuki signed his extension at the beginning of last season, meaning at the time of his signing he had only produced a total of 28 goals and 82 points. As a center, something the Habs have been looking for for years, Suzuki struggled his first two seasons, but after signing his contract and being coached by Hall of Famer Martin St. Louis, Suzuki seems to have found his stride, posting 61 points and scoring 21 goals last season. It would seem that the Habs are betting more on Suzuki's potential. With the addition of Kirby Dach at center as well, Suzuki's matchups may be more favourable this season and he may have more freedom offensively. This one might be the best comparable for Nylander, though Willy has certainly made more of his opportunity in Toronto than Suzuki has in Montreal.
Josh Norris: Signed at age 23, AAV - $7.95M, Cap Hit % - 9.64.
After two full seasons with the Sens, Norris has posted 52 goals and 90 points total - respectable numbers, but still well short of Nylander's totals when he signed his contract. Once again, the Sens are betting on Norris reaching his potential and awarded him with a big pay day after one 50+ point season. Understandably, like every team signing centers, the Sens paid a bit more, but the question is, can Norris duplicate and exceed last year while being shuffled around the lineup to make room for Claude Giroux?
As you can see, many teams have decided to pay younger players based on their potential and don't really care about how productive they were in the years prior to signing their massive extensions. The Leafs bet on Nylander's potential as well, don't get me wrong, but at least they had two productive seasons to base their information on. Many of these teams are basing their decisions off of one career year and hoping for duplicates down the road. For all of the flack that Dubas had taken at the time of signing Nylander, he certainly looks to have won that negotiation given how Nylander has produced since. For a cheaper cap hit percentage than any other player above, Nylander has outproduced his contract and it has become one of the best value contracts in the league.
| POLL | ||
SEPTEMBRE 8 | 260 ANSWERS Why the William Nylander contract is vastly superior to recently signed post-ELC deals What do you think about the Nylander contract now that several comparables signed richer deals with less evidence of success? | ||
| Nylander's deal was fine to begin with | 129 | 49.6 % |
| I hated it at first, love it now | 37 | 14.2 % |
| I still think Nylander needs to go | 78 | 30 % |
| I'm unsure of how I feel about Nylander's deal | 16 | 6.2 % |
| List of polls | ||
