A William Nylander contract projection that may not sit well with most, but will almost certainly happen
Nearly 4 years ago now, William Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs engaged in a contract dispute that had him miss two months of regular season playing time. The end result? A six-year deal worth $45 million. Because the contract was signed two months into the regular season, the cap hit for the first year was over $10 million. For years two through six, he has carried a cap hit of $6.96 million.
When he first signed the contract, many felt the Leafs caved and gave him too much. However, after four years, it is fair to say Nylander has statistically out played his contract. Last season, Nylander produced a career high in both goals (34) and points (80) in 81 regular season games played. Additionally, he has 15 points (8 goals & 7 assists) in his last 14 playoff games.
So what does that mean for his next contract? In order to answer that, we have to look at players comparable to him that have recently signed. It is hard to find a better statistical comparison to Nylander than Kevin Fiala in Los Angeles. Fiala was recently acquired by the Kings, and immediately signed a 7-year deal worth $55.125 million ($7.875 million AAV).
Over the past three seasons, Fiala has played 196 games with the Minnesota Wild, producing a total of 179 points (76 goals & 103 assists). This is good for a 0.91 points-per-game average. Over that same time span, William Nylander has played 200 games, producing a total of 181 points (82 goals & 99 assists). Also good for a 0.91 points-per-game average. However, Nylander does have a longer track record of NHL success. Whether or not that will mean much to GMs is up for debate, but I'm of the mindset that it almost certainly will factor in.
Additionally, each are coming off career highs in goals, assists and points. They are both 26-years-old and were both drafted in the first round of the 2014 entry draft (Nylander at 8th and Fiala at 11th). If Nylander were to sign today, it is likely he is looking at a similar deal to Kevin Fiala, if not higher.
Other potential comparable candidates who have recently signed long-term deals include:
Robert Thomas, 23-years-old: 8 years x $65 million ($8.125 million AAV)
Filip Forsberg, 27-years-old: 8 years x $68 million ($8.5 million AAV)
Tomas Hertl, 28-years-old: 8 years x $65.1 million ($8.1375 million AAV)
There is something to consider with all of these cases, though, that will come into play when Nylander comes due to sign his new deal - and it could equate to a much bigger pay day for Nylander. Each of Fiala, Forsberg, Thomas and Hertl signed for between 9.5%-10% of the cap. The year that Nylander is due a new deal, the salary cap is expected to be significantly higher.
While some Leaf fans may not like his style of play, nor agree about his worth, Nylander puts up numbers. Thus, he is going to get paid. With all this in mind, I project William Nylander's next contract to be a 7 or 8 year deal, averaging around $8.5 million per season - the same AAV as fellow Swede, Filip Forsberg.
However, if Nylander and his agent do decide to push for a percentage of the cap at or near 10%, we could see Nylander closer to $9M per season.
Sources: NHL.com, Capfriendly
| POLL | ||
3 AOUT | 783 ANSWERS A William Nylander contract projection that may not sit well with most, but will almost certainly happen What does Nylander deserve in his next contract? | ||
| Below $8 Mil | 322 | 41.1 % |
| $8 Mil - 8.49 Mil | 281 | 35.9 % |
| $8.5 Mil - $8.99 Mil | 110 | 14 % |
| $9 Mil + | 70 | 8.9 % |
| List of polls | ||
