A tale of two teams: The Leafs with Mitch Marner vs. the Leafs without Mitch Marner
When Mitch Marner left practice on December 3rd after a collision with Jake Muzzin, it left Leafs fans somewhat concerned. A video had surfaced of the two arguing afterwards, with Marner appearing to be the angrier of the two. It's become clear whatever happened was no small impact. Marner hasn't played a game since and has been placed on Long-Term Injured Reserve by the team.
Since then, the Leafs have played 6 games without their home grown superstar, posting a middling 3-2-1 record amid injury issues and a dip in goaltending. The most surprising part of those 6 games though, has been the Leafs' powerplay.
When Marner went down, the Leafs PP was sitting at 23.4%. Good enough for 8th best in the NHL. Marner was playing on PP1 in a new slot, sliding up and down the strong side of the zone acting as a passing option. This setup led to the puck being on Marner's stick a lot, while he tried to find seams to pick apart opposing penalty killers.
The top PP unit had Matthews and Nylander on the wings gave them multiple shooting angles, and they could both slide down to the net front if Morgan Rielly decided to put the puck on net. Tavares played more down low, working the puck at the goal like and behind the net, but sliding to a screen/tip position when the puck was at the point.
After Marner's injury, Ondrej Kase was promoted to PP1. The newly signed Czech winger added something Marner didn't have. Chaos. Ondrej Kase is chaos on skates. He creates havoc in front of the net and opens up opportunities for Nylander and Matthews to shoot. He's relentless on the puck, denying clearing attempts and finding rebounds.
In the 6 games since Marner has gone down, the powerplay has exploded to a lethal, albeit likely unsustainable 52.4%. Teams quickly learned that if they wanted to beat the Leafs, they'd have to stay far away from the penalty box. It's an odd thing - the Leafs' elite playmaker goes down, and suddenly the powerplay is unstoppable.
Where the powerplay seemed to flourish sans Marner, the penalty kill has struggled. Dropping from a sparkling 85.9% kill rate to just 70%. It's clear that without Mitch Marner in the lineup, the PK needs work.
Where the loss of Mitch Marner hurts the most however, is at 5-on-5. Ondrej Kase has taken his slot on the top line for now, and while Auston Matthews is still scoring goals at a ridiculous rate, Marner's absence opens up holes down the lineup. The combo of Kase and Kampf with whoever Sheldon Keefe decides to throw on that line with them has been an absolute nightmare for opposing teams. The majority of their shifts start in the Leafs end and finish with an offensive-zone face off for the Buds. Losing that shutdown line has definitely had an impact on the Leafs at 5-on-5.
The good news is that Marner's original timeline for return shouldn't have him missing more than a couple more games - if any. It will be interesting to see how Sheldon Keefe decides to deploy his highest paid winger when Mitch does get back. Will he put Marner back in his slot on PP1? Or try Marner out with Jason Spezza and the 2nd unit? Time will tell, until then, all we can do is speculate.
