According to the numbers, Auston Matthews is among the league's unluckiest shooters this season
Auston Matthews is having a tough start to the season by his, or anyone's standards. With only one goal to his credit after 6 games, some are beginning to wonder if the Leafs superstar will be able to three-peat as Rocket Richard winner this season.
The good news is that it hasn't been a drop off in his play that is causing his scoring woes. While an apparent back injury, courtesy of Jamie Benn, may be hampering him, his biggest obstacle so far this season has simply been poor shooting luck.
If we simply look at expected goals based on publicly available data, Matthews should have at least 2 more goals than he currently does. Still not quite a 60-goal pace, but much closer to what we're used to seeing from him.
Now, expected goals doesn't factor in shooting talent. If there's one thing Auston Matthews most certainly has, it's shooting talent. From the data available, it's been determined that Matthews' shot gives him an advantage of nearly 30% over league average shooting. With that taken into account, Matthews should have 2.5 more goals than he does at the moment.
Charts will never tell the full story of a hockey player and Matthews is the type of player that often breaks carefully built statistical models. The eye test tells me Matthews is just a tick off at the moment. His timing isn't quite there and the evidence is in the fact that he's either missing the net by inches with his shots, or he's fanning on some of his shot attempts. He's been in obvious pain during his last 2 games, but the good news is that through 6 games, Matthews has 6 points. The elite level of play is there and we all know the goals will come. He is Auston Matthews after all.
| POLL | ||
OCTOBRE 23 | 314 ANSWERS According to the numbers, Auston Matthews is among the league's unluckiest shooters this season How many goals will Matthews finish with following his slow start? | ||
| 40 or less | 27 | 8.6 % |
| 41-50 | 102 | 32.5 % |
| 51-60 | 133 | 42.4 % |
| More than 60 | 52 | 16.6 % |
| List of polls | ||
