Cole Caufield's new 8-year deal in Montreal could be a very good thing for the Leafs
It's been a quiet few days in Toronto as new GM Brad Treliving works behind the scenes to assess the situation and, presumably, have some preliminary discussions with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and the slew of pending UFAs and RFAs who are in need to new deals this summer.
As quiet as it's been on the news front in Toronto, one of their most heated rivals had an eventful morning on Monday, as the Montreal Canadiens have officially announced an 8-year extension for young star Cole Caufield, worth a whopping $7.85M per season. Caufield's deal, while sizeable, could actually be a very good thing for the Leafs. While this doesn't directly impact the Auston Matthews negotiations in any way, it should have at least some bearing on the William Nylander negotiations.
It's sort of comparing apples to oranges when comparing wingers to centers. Yes, they're both forwards, but wingers and centers have entirely different roles on the ice. With Caufield and Nylander both being wingers, there are all sorts of details that matter and can factor in when it comes time for the Leafs to sit down with Nylander to discuss his next deal.
Nylander, 27, is 5 years Caufield's senior. This is a good starting point. With Caufield's best years ahead of him as he is set to enter his prime within the next season or two, Nylander is likely 3 to 4 seasons from exiting his prime years, if we're using 31 as the cutoff age for a player's prime. Think Ryan O'Reilly and John Tavares here. They're still excellent players with a lot of good hockey left in them, but there's no doubt that both have slowed down considerably, at least in terms of their skating ability.
When it comes to level of production, Nylander, when he signed his last deal, was coming off of a 61-point season over an 82-game span - a 0.74 points per game pace. Caufield is coming off of a 36-point season over a 46-game span - a 0.78 points per game pace. As far as career trajectory is concerned, Caufield looks to be a hair ahead of Nylander in this regard. This year, Nylander finally broke the point-per-game barrier, finishing the season with 1.06 points per game in his 8th NHL season.
The next detail to consider here is that it took Nylander 5 seasons to reach the 30-goal plateau and 8 seasons to reach the 40-goal plateau. Caufield would have smashed that total last season if he remained healthy, as he had 26 goals in just 46 games, putting him on pace for 46 goals had he played 82 games. With scoring goals being the hardest thing to do at the NHL level, Caufield will carry a great deal of value simply for that reason.
Both Nylander and Caufield play in hockey hot beds in very volatile markets. If there was any sort of a "Habs tax", Caufield certainly didn't push for it. With that being the case, Nylander shouldn't be pushing for a "Leafs tax" either. Toronto and Montreal are 2 of the top 3 franchises in the NHL in terms of value. The pressure in these markets is enormous, so Caufield taking $7.85M in a comparable market should limit Nylander's salary ceiling as well, if market is a part of the argument.
The one area where Nylander has an edge here is his status as a UFA next summer. Caufield was a restricted free agent when he signed his deal. Nylander's value will exceed that of Caufield simply because there will be bidders if he gets to the open market.
Prior to Caufield signing his deal, Nylander was likely building a case to ask $10.5M or higher on his next deal. Now, with Caufield being younger, arguably more productive and having a better overall career trajectory, the Leafs could easily build a case for a cap hit closer to $9M-$9.5M. Whether or not Nylander and his agent are willing to take that remains up in the air.
| POLL | ||
JUIN 5 | 449 ANSWERS Cole Caufield's new 8-year deal in Montreal could be a very good thing for the Leafs Will Nylander get more or less than $10M on his next deal? | ||
| Less than $10M | 375 | 83.5 % |
| More than $10M | 74 | 16.5 % |
| List of polls | ||
