Comparing last year's Leafs and Lightning to this year's playoffs rosters

Let's take a look at Tampa first, winners of 2 of the last 3 Stanley Cups and finalists last season, this team is nothing to scoff at. It's worth mentioning that the Leafs aren't likely to see the same Andrei Vasilevskiy they saw last season. The Lightning netminder struggled through most of that series. I doubt that will happen again.

The core group in Tampa hasn't changed much. Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman and Vasilevskiy are all still there. In the bottom 6, Perry, Maroon, Bellemare, Hagel and Nick Paul will still be a nightmare to play against. Missing from last season's roster are Ryan McDonagh, Ondrej Palat, Cal Foote and Jan Rutta. Newcomers include Nick Perbix, Michael Eyssimont, Ian Cole, Darren Raddysh and Tanner Jeannot. The Leafs may have dodged a bullet with the injury to Jeannot, his forechecking ability and physicality certainly gives the Lightning bottom 6 a huge boost. The loss of Palat and McDonagh will definitely be felt though, Tampa is still a brutally tough opponent, but not quite what they were last season.

The Leafs, on the other hand, come into game 1 with a vastly different lineup. Last season's game 1 lines are nearly unrecognizable compared to this season's.

Kerfoot-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kase
Nylander-Kampf-Engvall
Clifford-Blackwell-Simmonds
Spezza
Bunting(injured)

Muzzin-Brodie
Rielly-Lyubushkin
Giordano-Liljegren
Holl

Campbell
Källgren

Seriously Sheldon? Nylander with Kampf and Engvall? Talk about overthinking your lineup.

Now lets look at this season's lineup. Depending on how Keefe decides to deploy them, the Leafs will have something very close to this when the puck drops on Tuesday.

Jarnkrok-Matthews-Marner
Tavares-O'Reilly-Nylander
Bunting-Acciari-Lafferty
Kerfoot-Kampf-Aston Reese
Knies
Simmonds

McCabe-Brodie
Rielly-Schenn
Giordano-Holl
Liljegren
Gustafsson

Players brought in:

Ryan O'Rielly
Calle Jarnkrok
Noël Acciari
Sam Lafferty
Zach Aston-Reese
Matthew Knies
Jake McCabe
Luke Schenn
Erik Gustafsson
Ilya Samsonov

Players leaving:
Ilya Mikheyev
Ondrej Kase
Colin Blackwell
Pierre Engvall
Kyle Clifford
Jason Spezza
Jake Muzzin
Ilya Lyubushkin
Rasmus Sandin
Jack Campbell

Looking at the list of departures and their replacements, it's very clear that this is a better Leafs team than last season, regardless of the regular season points totals. The only loss that really hurts is Jake Muzzin, but Jake McCabe has been an absolutely fantastic replacement since being picked up at the trade deadline. This year's team brings with it a much harder forecheck, an improved element of physicality, and a lot more playoff experience.

Being an experienced Leafs fan, I know that none of this guarantees a first round victory. However, I will say that the roster Sheldon Keefe has been given to work with by Kyle Dubas is much better suited to take on Tampa, Boston, and whatever other teams the Leafs may run into this post season. Tampa, by comparison, has lost ground. Logic, numbers and the eye test all point towards a Leafs victory. There is no excuse for failure this season. Just win baby.