Following last night's win over the Preds, the Leafs are very close to locking up home ice
Last time the Leafs met Tampa in the first round, they had home ice advantage, which was unfortunately ruined in Game 7, thanks to some terrible calls by the officials and I'm not sure we, as Leaf fans, will never let that go. Now, according to MoneyPuck, the Leafs have a 98.5% chance of securing home ice for the second straight series against the Bolts.
Many say that there isn't much value in home ice advantage anymore because of how good the Atlantic Division is and, to an extent, they're probably right. However, having home ice for a potential series clinching win in Game 5 and Game 7 can provide a number of intangibles for the home team. Not only are they playing in front of an emotional home crowd that can give them a momentum boost, but there are a couple of benefits in-game.
First, home ice advantage would allow the Leafs to control the line matchups, which would give Sheldon Keefe the opportunity to have T.J. Brodie and Jake McCabe on the ice more often than not against the likes of Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov and have Auston Matthews out against Tampa's third pairing. Not only can Keefe control who he puts out against Tampa's best, but it also lets him get his top six away from the likes of Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul.
Second, the Leafs are a much deeper team this year than they were last year, and Tampa has suffered some significant losses with Ryan McDonagh now in Nashville and Ondrej Palat in New Jersey. With how close that last series was, one can only assume that a deeper Leafs team this time around might help change their fate and swing the momentum in their favour - especially on home ice.
The advantage is there for the taking this year. It's up to the team and coaching staff to figure out how best to use it. With the Leafs all but having locked up home ice at this point, it will be interesting to see how Keefe uses it and if the team can make the most of it.
