Going by the numbers, one of the Leafs' biggest excuses for their playoff failures may actually prove true
A franchise record 115 points, an MVP season from Auston Matthews along with a franchise record for goals scored in a season, career years for Mitch Marner and William Nylander and yet, it was a sixth straight first round playoff exit. As Leaf fans called for change, whether it was trading one of the "Core 4" or firing Head Coach Sheldon Keefe, GM Kyle Dubas or President Brendan Shanahan, the Leafs ignored the noise and have continued to stay the course. Why? Because the numbers show that what Kyle Dubas and management are doing is working, they have simply been very unlucky.
Last season, the Leafs finished 4th overall and did so while finishing 27th overall in goaltending. Yes, 27th overall, so you can't exactly say Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov are going to be worse than any combination of Jack Campbell, Petr Mrazek, Joseph Woll and Erik Kallgren. Is there a chance? Yes, but that will be very hard to do, given how poorly Campbell and Mrazek played last season. 2021-22 was also Sheldon Keefe's first full 82-game season as the Leafs' Head Coach and he guided the team to a franchise best 54-21-7 record. Since taking over for Mike Babcock, Keefe's points percentage has risen in each season going from .628 in 2019/20 to .701 last season and overall under Keefe the Leafs have a points percentage of .679.
Moving on from the Leafs' regular season numbers, to their post-season numbers over the past 3 seasons, the Leafs have just been severely unlucky. In their last 19 playoff games, they were the better team (by expected goals) in 15 games, which is an astounding 79 percent. Being the better team in 15 of 19 games against Columbus, Montreal and Tampa Bay, but losing all three series is simply a lack of luck. Could they have scored more in the last 3 game 7's? Yes, but when the Leafs' biggest strength is their offense, maybe it was more the fact they were stonewalled in 3 consecutive series. They also played against two of the best, and surefire first ballot Hall of Famers in Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy. Joonas Korpisalo was also on another level in 2019-20. Perhaps you'll recall his brilliant 84-save performance against Tampa after the play-in round that year.
Take a look at these numbers. Over the last 3 playoff series against Columbus, Montreal and Tampa, Price, Vasilevskiy and the combination of Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins posted a save percentage of .943 against the Leafs during 5-on-5 play. To put that in perspective, that number is better than Jacques Plante's single season record save percentage of .940, meaning the Leafs faced the best goaltending of all-time over their last 3 playoff series combined.
To take it a step further, the Leafs had a regular season total of 2.6 expected goals per minute and during their last three playoff series, posted an expected goals per minute of 2.42. That would still make them a top 10 team over the past 3 regular seasons, proving even more that they have not been shut down by team defense, but rather by stellar goaltending. So if you're wondering why the Leafs have blocked out all the noise and stayed the course, these numbers prove why.
The system is working. The team is improving year over year. We can sit here and pretend like all first round losses are created equal or we can look at the data, which proves that the Leafs are much better than their playoff failures would indicate.
| POLL | ||
AOUT 25 | 226 ANSWERS Going by the numbers, one of the Leafs' biggest excuses for their playoff failures may actually prove true Given these numbers, do you believe the Leafs have been getting goalie'd in the playoffs? | ||
| Yes, there's no question | 164 | 72.6 % |
| No, just another excuse | 62 | 27.4 % |
| List of polls | ||
