Here's what a blockbuster trade between the Leafs and Ducks for John Gibson could look like
The Leafs have long been tethered to Anaheim Ducks goaltender John Gibson in trade discussions, but given what Sportsnet's Nick Alberga was reporting on Monday morning, it was the first sense that something could actually happen on this front. Alberga had reported on Monday that Gibson had informed the Ducks that he was open to being traded.
Shortly after that announcement was made, Gibson's agent, Kurt Overhardt, stated that Gibson had not requested a trade, nor has he informed the team that he is open to being moved. Whether this is merely a tactic to aid the Ducks in getting fair compensation for Gibson rather than negotiating from a position of weakness and drawing a weaker return remains to be seen.
Leafs Nation has been buzzing most of Monday, going over hypothetical trade scenarios and preparing armchair GM trades on CapFriendly, but many of these scenarios do not come across as very realistic. For starters, the Ducks are not going to be accepting a package of Mrazek, Kerfoot, Holl and a 1st round pick for John Gibson. So let's just get that out of the way right now. Any deal involving a goaltender of Gibson's caliber is going to bring back a lot more than 3 pieces that the Leafs would have a tough time moving for a fair return on their own - let alone packaged together. The 1st round pick is a certainty, so let's start there and work our way towards what a realistic trade proposal might look like.
The Buds own their own first round picks in each of the next 3 seasons. Given the fact that they did not have a 1st round pick last season and because this draft is believed to be a very deep one, I'd venture to guess it means that Leafs GM Kyle Dubas wants to retain this year's pick. Also, we need only look to the fact that Dubas did not wish to deal that pick at the deadline as evidence that he'd prefer to hang onto it, which means that the 1st rounder that the Leafs would include in the deal is likely to be a future, either in 2023 or 2024. Since 2024 is still a couple of years off, I'd imagine that the Ducks would insist on the 2023 pick, if 2022 is off the table.
Next, because the Ducks would not be receiving the Leafs' 1st rounder this year, I'd imagine they'd want one of the Leafs' better prospects. California native Nick Robertson is probably going to be at the top of their list of players that peaks their interest. If the Leafs are not interested in moving Robertson, we should be prepared to see one of Topi Niemela or possibly even Matthew Knies included in the deal. For the sake of making this deal as realistic as possible, let's assume it's Nick Robertson, due to the California roots and the fact that he's the closest prospect of the 3 to being NHL-ready.
The Ducks are almost certainly going to want a roster player from the Leafs, and they're not likely to have interest a player like Jake Muzzin, due to the large cap hit ($5.625M), plus Muzzin owns a NMC in his contract, which means he'd have to waive in order to be moved. Since I'm not convinced that he'd consider a move to a non-contender, he's out. William Nylander is a marquee player for the Leafs and, if we're being honest with ourselves, the Leafs are not going to move Nylander, Nick Robertson and a 1st for John Gibson, so he's out.
Earlier on, I mentioned the fact that the Ducks are not going to take on all 3 of Petr Mrazek, Alex Kerfoot and Justin Holl.. But would they consider taking one? I'd imagine that since Gibson would be going out, the Ducks may want someone with NHL experience to partner with Anthony Stolarz. So, let's assume that Mrazek would be included in this deal. A tandem of Stolarz and Mrazek certainly feels like a tandem that you'd see on a rebuilding team like the Ducks, plus they have Lukas Dostal on the way as well.
I'd imagine that, since the Ducks may be taking on Mrazek, they'd want a sweetener, due to the fact that they know the Leafs really want to move him rather than buy him out. But this gets tricky, assuming that the Leafs already have Nick Robertson and a future 1st rounder involved in the deal. They're less likely to want to attach another 1st round pick in this deal, but what if they offered the Ducks a conditional pick? Something along the lines of a conditional 2024 2nd round pick, which could be elevated to a 2024 1st round pick if the Leafs make the Stanley Cup Finals either next season or in 2023-24?
From the Leafs' perspective here, they'd be teetering on "that's too much" if the conditional pick winds up being another 1st. But what if the Ducks would consider adding a prospect or a conditional pick of their own to balance out the deal? A prospect who may not quite fit into their plans could be a concession that they'd be willing to make.
The Ducks have a very young core that includes the likes of Troy Terry (24), Trevor Zegras (21), Maxime Comtois (23), Mason McTavish (19), Isac Lundestrom (22), Jamie Drysdale (20), Sam Steel (24), Drew Helleson (21), Jacob Perreault (20) and the aforementioned Dostal (21). With this collection of young players all under control for some time, could the Ducks consider moving another prospect in the pipeline to the Leafs as a balancing piece? Perhaps someone like 2019 1st rounder Brayden Tracey, who happens to play left wing (a noted position of need in Toronto), could make some sense to replace the departing Nick Robertson in the Leafs' LW pipeline.
So, the full deal would look something like this:
To Toronto:
John Gibson (5 years remaining at $6.4M per season, UFA) and 21-year-old left wing prospect Brayden Tracey (2 years remaining at $863,333, RFA)
To Anaheim:
Petr Mrazek (2 years remaining at $3.8M, UFA), Nick Robertson (2 years remaining at $796,667, RFA), 2023 1st round pick, conditional 2024 2nd round pick (becomes a 2024 1st round pick if the Leafs make it to the Stanley Cup Finals in either 2022-23 or 2023-24).
Basically, if you're looking at it from the perspective of paying a 1st and a 2nd to upgrade from Mrazek to Gibson and then just swapping Nick Robertson for the player who was taken 24 spots ahead of him in the 2019 draft, it doesn't seem so out of sorts. And if the Leafs end up making the SCF in either of the next two seasons, I highly doubt anyone's going to care about a 2024 2nd becoming a 2024 1st.
At the end of the day, I know we all want to see Dubas enter into trade negotiations with Pat Verbeek and absolutely fleece him, but if we're being realistic, I don't think the Ducks are in any rush to give away John Gibson unless it makes their team better. From the Leafs' perspective, this deal absolutely makes their team better, and although the price may be steep, this could be a deal that works out incredibly well for both sides.
| POLL | ||
14 JUIN | 1099 ANSWERS Here's what a blockbuster trade between the Leafs and Ducks for John Gibson could look like Would you be comfortable with this package for John Gibson?(Gibson and a prospect for Mrazek, Robertson, a 2023 1st and a conditional 2nd) | ||
| Absolutely | 530 | 48.2 % |
| No, it's a bit too much | 258 | 23.5 % |
| No, it's WAY too much | 207 | 18.8 % |
| I don't know if it's enough to land Gibson | 104 | 9.5 % |
| List of polls | ||
