Matthews heavily favoured to be the top two-way forward in the league in 2022-23
Advanced statistics are interesting because they really highlight the underlying numbers and potential game breaking factors that make the NHL's star players successful. Analytics experts do a lot of tedious work behind the scenes that is really valuable and can be used in a variety of ways, including allowing teams to isolate the things that give them an edge that they can exploit. They also provide some valuable insights to fans, allowing them to see things that they may not otherwise have been aware of while watching the game from a specific lens.
Having said that, not every fan enjoys analytics. Some GMs don't, some coaches don't - hell, even some players don't. Ask Mark Scheifele how he feels about analytics. He's been plenty open about his distaste for all of the underlying metrics. Whether you love them or hate them, advanced analytics are here to stay and as time goes on, I'm sure we'll see new models being created and shared that favour certain players over others.
One of the areas of the game that is most important is play at even strength. After all, most of the game is played at even strength, so if you can excel there, obviously you're a good player and should be acknowledged as such. With that said, I don't think we need any analytics to convince people that Auston Matthews is a very good player. In fact, Matthews is widely recognized as one of the NHL's elite, and rightfully so. Per the GAR model, Matthews is expected to be the league's best even strength offense and even strength defense this season.
The back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophy winner is expected to once again lead the league in Goals Above Replacement - otherwise known simply as GAR, which is a metric that measures how much value that player contributed to their team in a single number. The GAR metrics being used are even strength offense and defense - EVO and EVD for short.
Since making his debut in 2016 for the Leafs, Matthews, 24, has really developed into an elite two-way, goal scoring forward. He's expected to lead offensively and defensively at 14.8 and 2.7 respectively. Now this statistic doesn't mean he will necessarily lead the league in points. It means the 2022 Hart trophy winner should be the best five on five player in the league, which isn't a huge surprise, considering he has lead the league in even strength goals for the past three years. This stat really shows how dominant of a player Matthews really is and the fact that he doesn't require the man advantage to produce at an elite level like some of the other talent around the league, who greatly pad their stats on the power play.
