One metric from the Tampa series that supports why keeping the core together is a good idea for the Leafs
Despite the first round loss, I believe it is fair to sat the Toronto Maple Leafs played well in their first round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Among many metrics used to analyze hockey, expected goals has become more popular amongst the analtics community as it gives an indication of which team has had more dangerous scoring chances. Expected goals attempts to mix and break down the quality of scoring chances, with the quantity of scoring chances, to help give people a better understanding of who carried the play. Below is a break down of how the series went in terms of expected goals.
As you can see, the series was as equal as you could ask for in terms of the expected goals. And if you do not trust advanced stats, you can cross-reference the above with the eye test. For example, the Leafs controlled game one, and dominated the expected goals. The Buds also won game three, but came out below in the expected goals. That is because, as Leaf fans will remember, Jack Campbell played exceptionally well in the third period, arguably winning them the game.
It is also worth noting that the expected goals for the entire series had the Leafs at 51%, verse the Lightning at 49%. This is about as close to a coin flip as you will get.
This shows that in addition to taking the two time defending Champions to a seventh and deciding game, the Leafs were right there throughout the duration of the series, neck-and-neck with one of the best teams in hockey. Perhaps blowing up the roster is not the best way to go.
That said, one difficult metric to judge is the clutch gene. After five consecutive first round playoff exits via a sudden death game (4 game sevens and 1 game five) it feels like Toronto doesn't have it. If you go back and watch the third period of game seven, the way Tampa Bay blocked shots and shut down the center of the ice, it is fair to say Tampa Bay has what Toronto doesn't. Perhaps the Leafs will have learned the one thing that they're missing from this loss.
So while expected goals are great for overall player assessment, they are no substitute for actual goals.
| POLL | ||
MAI 18 | 115 ANSWERS One metric from the Tampa series that supports why keeping the core together is a good idea for the Leafs Do advanced stats mean anything to you? | ||
| Yes, they are everything | 18 | 15.7 % |
| They are good to know, but far from everything | 72 | 62.6 % |
| No, they suck | 25 | 21.7 % |
| List of polls | ||
