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Playoff preview: A look at the Leafs' potential first round matchups

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Ben Hodgson
March 25, 2022  (11:53)
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With the trade deadline having come and gone, all eyes are now on the NHL playoff race. The Atlantic Division race was over almost as soon as it started. Tampa, Florida, Toronto and Boston will be the 4 representatives this season. The Leafs will try to avoid a *wince* 6th straight first round exit this year against one of their 3 division rivals, or the Carolina Hurricanes depending on how the rest of the season goes. Now the question becomes, who would you rather draw as a first round opponent?

The Tampa Bay Lightning seem to the the most likely matchup. Tampa are the defending Stanley Cup Champions (x2) and most of their roster from those runs is still intact. I wouldn't envy the team that has to play them in round 1. It's hard enough to keep the puck out of your net against them long enough to get up ice, then you have to get past a D corps led by Victor Hedman in order to have a chance at scoring on *checks notes* reigning Conn Smythe Winner and former Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy.

A Leafs win in this series would be nothing short of miraculous. Their only real hope is that, after consecutive cup runs and a short off-season, the Lightning run out of steam during the first round. We're seeing a bit of a slip by the Lightning now, so there's still a chance they could end up being a Wild Card team.

If the Leafs drop behind the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning to 4th in the division, they'll face off against the Florida Panthers. A team that was once a group of misfits and cast-offs, the Panthers rely on a high octane offence to outscore their inconsistent goaltending. There's no shortage of toughness in that dressing room either, and with defenders like Radko Gudas patrolling the blue line, it's best to keep your head on a swivel while playing against them.

The Panthers are missing a key defenseman right now in Aaron Ekblad, and though he is estimated to be back in time for playoffs, coming back from a high ankle sprain is not a fun task. The Leafs and Panthers haven't had a chance to face each other yet this season. Their first opportunity to see how they stack up will come Sunday night in the second game of a back-to-back. We'll be watching both teams very closely in that game.

Should the Leafs fall into a Wild Card slot, they may have to face the Carolina Hurricanes. Don't be fooled by memories of Frederik Andersen letting in soft goals in playoffs past fool you. The Danish goaltender looks like a new man this season and will be tough to beat. Carolina is a deep team at all positions, but they haven't been able to find the playoff magic to go on a deep run just yet. Look for them to be a hungry squad, and for Freddy to be spectacular against his former team. This is the way.

Finally we have the [expletive] Boston Bruins. Its been a few years since the Leafs and Bruins clashed in the playoffs and both teams, while keeping the same cores, have changed significantly since their last meeting. Both Tuukka Rask and Frederik Andersen are gone, replaced by Jeremy Swayman and Jack Campbell respectively. Thankfully Zdeno Chara is no longer there to assault the Leafs with his stick, but Charlie McAvoy is no Mr. Rogers himself.

This is the most stressful of all the Leafs' potential matchups. Win, and the dragon is slain. The demons exorcized. Lose, and unhealed wounds of several previous losses will be filled with salt. Still, somehow this feels like the most winnable scenario for the Leafs. For it to happen, both teams would have to remain ahead of Tampa, or one of them would have to pass Florida, who currently sit 7 points ahead of both the Leafs (85) and the Bruins (85) with 92 points. Tampa isn't far behind with 84 points.

No matter who they end up playing when the first round arrives, the Leafs will need to find some goaltending if they want to have a hope of winning. All of our hopes now rest on Jack Campbell returning from injury and finding his game. Otherwise, they'll have to use a shaky Petr Mrazek or a very green Erik Kallgren. I believe scoring will come this year. Auston Matthews has not only elevated his game this season, but added a bit of a mean streak as well.

It all kicks off May 2nd. Until then, Leafs fans will watch the standings with baited breath, wondering who they will have to face when they try to break their playoff curse. There are no easy matchups for the Buds in round 1. This is very much a "pick your poison" scenario. If the Leafs hope to avoid disappointment again this season, they'll have to come ready and leave it all out on the ice when they get there.

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Playoff preview: A look at the Leafs' potential first round matchups

Which team do the Leafs stand the best chance of winning against in the frist round?

Boston17244 %
Tampa8321.2 %
Florida4110.5 %
Carolina9524.3 %
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