Shocker for the day: New data shows that the Leafs are the most salary-efficient team in the entire NHL
When rookie GM Kyle Dubas was named as veteran Lou Lamoriello's successor in Toronto, his first order of business was signing UFA John Tavares to a 7-year, $77M deal. He followed that up with a dicey contract negotiation with William Nylander. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner both skated away with 5 and 6 year deals, respectively, when most thought they both should have gotten 8-year pacts and suddenly, Dubas became the guy who handed out $40M to four players.
Had things worked out the way Dubas had hoped, with some immediate playoff success, I don't think anyone is really batting an eyelash at any of these deals. However, since the Leafs are yet to have experienced any real postseason success, it's easy to point the finger at the Leafs' GM and blame him. After all, he's the one who handed out the money. He's the one who refuses to admit defeat. But, maybe that's because it's a tad too early to abandon the plan.
There is a commanding narrative when it comes to the Leafs that they are in "salary cap hell". Every year, we're told they can't add or can't improve and every year Kyle Dubas and Brandon Pridham find ways to make it all fit, with the Leafs showing tangible, albeit incremental improvements.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Leafs are actually the NHL's top team in terms of value added per contract. What that means is that, despite the fact that they're spending over $40M on 4 players, the Leafs are actually getting exceptional value on their contracts - especially the depth deals.
As you can see in the post above, the Leafs have several players who were signed this year who provide more value than what they're being paid for, starting with veterans Mark Giordano and Calle Jarnkrok, who provide the Leafs with value about $6.8M above what they're being paid for. We'll have to wait and see if this translates to success on the ice, but it's based on real statistical data, so there's a great chance that it will.
The deals for Tavares, Nylander, Matthews and Marner were all met with criticism for a variety of reasons from term to AAV to on ice impact, but you could make a very compelling argument that most or all of these players' performances last season exceeded the value of their contracts. Even though Tavares wasn't quite a point per game for the Leafs, he did lead the league in puck battles won and was also very close to the top for faceoff percentage and adds to the collective success of the team in a variety of other ways. The Athletic's Dom Luszczyszyn's model actually had Tavares worth a fraction more than his $11M cap hit last season.
All of this to say that paying HUGE money to your star players doesn't matter if you're not overpaying 3rd and 4th liners, as a lot of teams seem to do. It's not only a wash, but it's actually a better way to do business, as you're not allowing dead weight to absorb a ton of your salary. Not to mention the fact that Dubas has cleaned up with the deals for Michael Bunting, Mark Giordano, Calle Jarnkrok and Timothy Liljegren.
Maybe.. just maybe Dubas is a much better negotiator than we have all given him credit for. At the end of the day, every team carries between a 20-23 man roster and those teams have $82.5M to spend on that roster. So what if the Leafs are paying $40M to 4 players? If they're saving on nearly every other player on the roster, and those players are all playing above the values of their contracts, then what does it matter? That's a net positive.
Maybe it's time we gave Dubas his due. All signs are pointing towards the Leafs breaking through that glass ceiling in the playoffs sooner than later. There's nothing wrong with applauding the work of the GM before that happens when it's trending in that direction. In sports, we celebrate the victories and we deal with the losses. There's nothing wrong with celebrating the small victories too.
