The Leafs' cap crunch is finally coming to an end and just in time for sizable new deals for Matthews, Marner
If I hear the words ''cap hell'' associated with the Leafs one more time I may blow a gasket. Ever since Kyle Dubas inked John Tavares to a 7-year, $77 million contract, fans and media have harped on the Leafs' salary cap structure. Who can forget Dubas' famous quote when asked if he could keep the core 4 together .
Well, 4 years later, they have. The Leafs are among the league's elite teams and not only has the core been kept intact, the defense is massively better than it was the day Tavares signed. All of this despite the pandemic freezing the salary cap immediately after the Leafs locked up Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews to massive money. Dubas has managed this through bargain signings like Michael Bunting and by allowing certain players like Ilya MIkheyev and Zach Hyman to sign inflated contracts with other teams rather than overpaying them to stay. As it stands, Dubas has some work left to do for this season. He has 8 NHL level defensemen signed, with Rasmus Sandin making 9 NHL defenders once he is signed, and I'm sure everyone would love to see Dubas go out and get a legitimate 2LW to compliment Tavares and Nylander.
Not only does Dubas need to sign Sandin and figure out who will make up the roster on opening night, he needs to clear approximately $1.5M in cap space in the process. This is not an uncommon situation around the league. The Leafs are one of 11 teams currently over the salary cap. Of those 11 teams, the Leafs have the least space to clear out.
The good news is, the cap crunch is coming to an end. If we look ahead to the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons, the Leafs are set to have a TON of cap space. Next season will see Kerfoot, Engvall, Kampf, Bunting and Holl become UFAs. Only Gaudette, Mete and Samsonov will be RFAs. Kampf and Bunting are definitely players they'd like to re-sign and the good news is that they'll have a whopping $15 million in cap space to do so if the cap rises just $1M to $83,500,000. Notable UFAs they could look at include Dylan Larkin, Pavel Zacha or even David Pastrnak, if he makes it that far. Wouldn't that be something!?
For the 2024-25 season, things are wide open. They'll have a couple of massive deals to work out with Auston Matthews and William Nylander becoming UFAs, but the Cap picture is wide open. Muzzin, Brodie and Murray's deals will also expire. Leaving the Leafs with a MASSIVE $52M budget to replace them at the projected $84,500,000 cap - and that's if the salary cap doesn't make an enormous jump ahead of schedule, which is rumoured. They'll have the cap space to go after players like Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm, or Tom Wilson even after signing Matthews to a max deal.
It will be fun to see what Kyle Dubas can do with a blank slate and without being taken out at the knees by a flat salary cap. If anything, the last 2 seasons have taught him how to maneuver in a tight cap situation, and taught him the value of flexibility when it comes to roster construction. This time around, I expect Dubas to be more conservative with the deals that he signs with the exception of Matthews and Marner. For those two, just write down 8 years and let them fill in the number. They're both well worth it!
