The Leafs' current struggles aren't ''just like last year''; according to the analytics, it's much, much worse
Not sure if it's time to push the panic button, exactly, only 10 games into the season but things haven't gone according to plan and they have seemingly gotten worse from game-to-game. California road trips are never fun, they are usually daunting for the Eastern teams, and no matter how far below the bar the teams in the Pacific Division are compared to some of the teams in the more competitive divisions, the Leafs still usually come out of those trips with at least 2 points. The games are also spread out in such a way that you don't have time to rest, usually 3 games in 4 days.
After falling to the Vegas Golden Knights while being outshot 33-23, the Leafs dropped a 4-3 OTL to the San Jose Sharks, a 4-2 regulation loss to the Los Angeles Kings, and then finished things off with a 4-3 OTL to the Anaheim Ducks. The Leafs are now back home as they wait for the Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday night and then a date with the Boston Bruins on Saturday.
The are high expectations for the Leafs this season and while some claim that the start to this season is reminiscent of last year's, the advanced statistics and analytics would beg to differ. In 17 different categories that range from CF/60 to CA/60 to xGA/60 and so on, the 2022-23 Maple Leafs best their 2021-22 counterparts in only 4 categories through the first 10 games - FA/60, GA/60, SA/60, and SV%. The rest have seen a sharp decrease. It's truly alarming.
With the plenty of high-octane offensive pieces at their disposal in Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly, the Leafs should be a lot better than their 4-4-2 record reflects. But not only do they not look as competitive as they did last season, even during last year's losses, they're riding a 4-game losing streak and seem no closer to busting their slump than they did before their 4-game slide began.
So while it may be too early to panic or call for a coaching change, or for the head of Kyle Dubas to roll, maybe there is some truth to the claims that this Leafs team is inferior to last year's iteration after all. The advanced statistics are showing a much poorer start, the regular statistics are showing a tougher start, and the eye test suggest changes may be required - and as soon as possible.
Previously on MapleLeafsDaily
| POLL | ||
OCTOBRE 31 | 228 ANSWERS The Leafs' current struggles aren't ''just like last year''; according to the analytics, it's much, much worse Is this start equal to, better than or worse than last year's? | ||
| About the same | 72 | 31.6 % |
| Worse. So much worse.. | 144 | 63.2 % |
| Better for sure! They're fine - just some bad luck | 12 | 5.3 % |
| List of polls | ||
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