The Leafs face a difficult decision with one top prospect, but there's only one smart play
With the Leafs expected to make a couple more rounds of cuts this week, the focus appears to be on the team's 2nd round pick in 2022, Fraser Minten. At 19 years of age, Minten making the jump to the NHL right away would not be particularly surprising, given how much rope he was given in Maple Leafs training camp last fall. He seems to have picked up right where he left off in this year's camp, showing that he not only possesses the same skill and maturity, but that he's actually gotten better over the course of a year as well.
Minten has formed a tremendous amount of chemistry with Leafs winger Matthew Knies and could certainly make an impact on both the 2nd powerplay unit and as a backup penalty killer behind Mitch Marner, David Kampf, Sam Lafferty and Auston Matthews, among others.
The interesting debate here is not whether or not Minten is good enough to make the team. He has shown throughout the course of this training camp that he is good enough to make the team. However, should the Leafs rush him to the NHL after a few impressive pre-season games? I'm not so sure.
Minten does possess NHL size, coming in at 6'2 and 192 lbs. He also possesses NHL-level intelligence and poise. His work ethic is solid as well. So why then do I give pause on backing him for an immediate jump to the NHL? Because rushing him in before he's ready could end up being a big mistake.
Were Minten a high first rounder, I might not be so cautious. However, with a player taken at 38th overall, it's far more likely that there are parts of his game that, while good, can still use some work. It's a lot easier to fix the details of your game when you're playing against players your own age, rather than against NHL veterans, where it's very much sink or swim. Doesn't it make more sense just to send him back to junior for one more season to make sure he can swim in deep water before just throwing him in as a 19-year-old and risking shaking his confidence?
I'm not saying that Minten isn't good enough to make it. Quite the opposite, in fact. I think he's a player and I think he probably deserves at least a 9-game look at the NHL level. However, sending him back to Kamloops for one more season of learning how to dominate the game in all areas and playing big minutes at 5v5, powerplay and PK only serves the Leafs well in the long run.
The Leafs rushed Nick Robertson to the NHL before he was truly ready. I understand that there's a sea of difference between a 6'2, 192-pound center and a 5'9, 170-pound winger, but I'd rather not have the Leafs try it and find out they were wrong when waiting one more year would only allow Minten to fill out just a little bit more, add some more muscle to his already large frame, and become just a little bit more explosive.
Time will tell what the Leafs have in mind for Minten and if they do keep him up with the NHL club, maybe that's the best course of action for his development. However, if they do opt to send him back down to the WHL, I think that's the safe move and probably the wise one as well.
