The Leafs currently sit at 106 points on the season, with the defending Stanley Cup Champion Lightning 6 points back with 7 games remaining. Meanwhile, the Boston Bruins are just 3 points back of the Lightning, but 9 points back of the Leafs.
So what does this mean? Well, it basically means that if the Leafs play .500 hockey, going 3-3-0 over the final 6 games, they'll finish up with 112 points, meaning that the Lightning would have to win out to pass them. If the Buds can find a way to go 4-2-0, they'll be able to secure home ice with 114 points - a total that, in any other year, might be enough to secure the Presidents Trophy as the league's top team.
For the Bruins to catch the Leafs, the Buds would have to play sub .500 hockey and the Bruins would have to win all 7 of their remaining games just to draw even. The Bruins would win the tiebreaker.
Mathematically, the Leafs could still pass the Florida Panthers and take the top spot in the division if the Buds can win out and the Panthers go 1-6-0 over their final 7 games, but it's certainly a longshot, given how well the Panthers have played this season and how light their schedule is down the stretch. The Panthers have also won their last 10 straight.
The Leafs have 3 very important games remaining, as a matchup with each of the Lightning, Panthers and Bruins upcoming in the final stretch. Wins in each of these games would be paramount in securing home ice in round 1.
POLL | ||
AVRIL 19 | 363 ANSWERS The magic number for the Leafs to lock up 2nd in the Atlantic Division and home ice advantage Will the Leafs take home ice advantage in round 1 of the playoffs? | ||
Definitely | 297 | 81.8 % |
No, Tampa will pass them | 42 | 11.6 % |
No, Boston will pass them | 9 | 2.5 % |
Both Tampa and Boston will pass them | 15 | 4.1 % |
List of polls |