What does a successful rookie season look like for Matthew Knies?

Knies has already made his NHL debut, playing in 3 regular season games at the end of last season, following that up with a 7-game run in the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He registered 1 assist in his 3 regular season games and 4 points in his 7 playoff games - all with very limited time to practice with his teammates and build any real chemistry. Now, with a full training camp coming up, the expectations are certainly high.

We, as Leaf fans, have a difficult time in not overhyping prospects, which can create a tremendous amount of pressure. So with that in mind, where should we set the bar for Knies in terms of what we should consider a successful rookie season?

Knies is not your typical rookie. He's already built like an NHLer, standing at 6'3 and weighing in at 210 lbs. In that sense, he's not outsized and shouldn't have the same adjustment period in playing against men. Also, though, we have to come into this season knowing that he won't be a point-per-game player, like he was in the NCAA.

A lot of what we can expect from Knies will depend on where he plays in the lineup. If Knies begins the season with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the Leafs' top line, the bar will be set much higher than if he ends up playing on the 3rd line with David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok, for example.

Let's just assume for a minute that Knies will be moved around, spending time on each of the top 3 lines, with most of his time coming in the middle six. These seem like pretty realistic circumstances. If this ends up being the case, if Knies can produce 20 goals and rack up 35 assists for a total of 55 points, I'm viewing that as a pretty solid rookie campaign.

The last 4 consecutive Calder Trophy winners have produced between 50 and 57 points, with Matthew Beniers leading the way last season, having tallied 57 points in Seattle. Granted, there were a couple of shortened seasons in there and previous Calder Trophy winners had produced between 66 and 85 points in that 2015-2019 range, before COVID. Of course, those Calder winners were some pretty elite players in Auston Matthews, Elias Pettersson, Mathew Barzal and Artemi Panarin. If we don't view Knies in that same echelon of players, we probably shouldn't reach too high on his rookie point totals. In that sense, 55 points is probably fair for a 21-year-old who sees significant time playing alongside John Tavares and William Nylander.

If Knies does slip a little lower in the lineup and play on that third pair, I'd probably set the bar somewhere in the 40-45 point range. If he plays higher in the lineup, spending most of his time with Matthews and Marner, I'd probably raise the bar to around 60-65 points, which will almost certainly put him in the Calder Trophy race.

If Knies surpasses any of these totals in those positions, that would be a huge boost for Knies' profile and a huge win for the Leafs.