Why the Leafs may not trade Justin Holl

It's been expected the entire off-season that the Leafs would trade Holl who is entering the final year of a 3-year deal, to free up cap space. In particular, if they could acquire a more physical right-shot defenseman. Unfortunately that hasn't come to fruition for those that want him gone and there may be a reason.

Based on underlying numbers, when paired with TJ Brodie, Holl is a very good defenseman (sarcastic woohoo). Among 86 pairings to play 350+ 5v5 minutes together, Holl and Brodie ranked surprisingly high in a number of categories:

- 4th in xGF% (58%)

- 13th in xGA/60

- 3rd in HDCF% (64%)

- 15th in SCF% (55%)

Reading those numbers, you probably think that most of their time paired together was spent with the Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner pairing on the ice - well, you'd be wrong. Their most common line mates based on time on once were David Kampf, Pierre Engvall, Alexander Kerfoot and John Tavares. Clearly, they are being deployed more as a shutdown pairing with the Kampf line and the numbers show that it has been effective.

Maybe the Leafs aren't trading Holl this off-season because they want to see how that pairing does over a longer stretch playing together. It would also allow them to move their other defenders around and possibly have Morgan Rielly play with Mark Giordano or Jake Muzzin. Honestly - who knows at this point? Sheldon Keefe may even try Rielly with Timothy Liljegren on a longer trial if he feels they need a more dynamic, puck-moving pair.