William Nylander's $10M asking price far exceeds the contracts of six of his peer comparables
The William Nylander conundrum is going to rage on until he either signs a new contract or the Toronto Maple Leafs decide his demands are too rich for their blood and trade him away.
Rumours have him asking for $10M+, while the Leafs are far apart with their range being closer to what Timo Meier signed (8 years and a cap hit of $8.8 million). There is definitely room to wiggle around as Nylander could and should command upwards of $9 million, but if he doesn't budge and is insistent on $9.5M to more than $10M, then the Leafs might not have a choice.
There are some really good comparable players to Nylander around the NHL, production-wise, with the most important nugget here being that none of them own an AAV that exceeds $8 million. Of course the market changes on a yearly basis and whenever one player signs a deal, the next player gets slightly more, however there's a large discrepancy between what his comparables are making and what Nylander's asking for. The production is broken down by games played, goals scored and total points. Check out these comparisons.
Looking back at the past 3 seasons:
William Nylander: 214GP-91G-209PKyle Connor: 217GP-104G-223P Jake Guentzel: 210G-99G-214PAlex DeBrincat: 216GP-100G-200PKevin Fiala: 201GP-76G-197PPavel Buchnevich: 190GP-79G-191PSam Reinhart: 214GP-89G-189P
Connor still has 3 years left on a 7-year deal he signed back in 2019 with a cap hit of $7.142 million. Guentzel has 1 year left on a 5-year deal he signed back in 2018 with a cap hit of $6 million.
DeBrincat just signed a 4-year deal worth $7.875 million per season, Fiala is one year into a 7-year deal with a cap hit of $7.875 million, Buchnevich is 2 years into a 4-year deal with a cap hit of $5.8 million, and Reinhart is in the final year of a 3-year deal that has a cap hit of $6.5 million.
Nylander is coming into the final year of his 6-year deal that he signed back in 2018 with a cap hit of $6.9662 million. He is coming off two successive career-seasons, with the most recent being 40 goals and 87 points in 2022-23.
There are 15 players in the NHL right now with a cap hit exceeding $10 million, but the thing that might cause the most ruckus is the fact that Auston Matthews is in line for a new deal in the same summer and then Mitch Marner will follow in the next year.
His comparable players all signed in different seasons, some having to sign contracts in the stagnant-cap era, potentially leaving money on the table. With just a few goals or points separating Nylander from the likes of DeBrincat and Fiala, is Nylander really worth $2 million + more than them?
With the salary cap set to rise exponentially over the course of the next few seasons, there's always the possibility of signing a short term deal at a modest salary bump and waiting things out until then. It's a risk for both sides, but signing a player like Nylander to a mega deal, while having to do the same with Matthews and Marner - and maybe John Tavares, though his cap hit will drop substantially - is going to be very tough business to undertake.
DeBrincat learned the hard way that he wasn't going to get his asking price from any of the interested teams, will Nylander follow suit and take a bit of a "discount" to remain with the Maple Leafs? We'll have to wait and see.
