With Murray finally out of the picture, what are the expectations for Woll's rookie season?
The goaltending conundrum that surrounded the Toronto Maple Leafs this summer has finally been resolved after Matt Murray was recently placed on the LTIR to begin the 2023-24 season.
After their post-season defeat against the Florida Panthers, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the Maple Leafs would roll with Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll in the following season with Murray being either traded or bought out - worst case scenario.
The trade market for Murray was as dry as one could've imagined so when the first buyout window approached it seemed destined that Murray would be off the Maple Leafs roster heading into Canada Day.
The Leafs remained quiet, Murray was still around, they signed a glut of veterans including Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi, and were well above the cap threshold. Samsonov filed for arbitration, which then opened another buyout window that the Leafs opted not to make a move on. It was later reported that Murray was injured and that the Leafs actually tried unloading him during the first window but the rules stipulate you cannot buyout an injured player.
So now that Samsonov has a new contract after going through arbitration, Woll's spot is more secured with Murray being on the LTIR, what can we expect from the goaltenders heading into 2023-24?
This past season the Leafs got 40 starts out of Samsonov, 26 from Murray, 7 from Woll, and 9 from the recently departed Erik Kallgren. Going back to his days with the Washington Capitals, Samsonov had 22 starts to Braden Holtby's 47 in 2019-20. In 2020-21 he had 18 starts to Vanecek's 36 and in 2021-22 they each had 39 starts. The 40 he had this season was a career-high, which begs the question if he can carry the load of 55-60+ games.
The NHL has moved from starting goaltenders assuming 60-65 starts a year to a 1A/1B tandem. There are a few bell cows out there in Andrei Vasilevskiy, Igor Shesterkin, Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros, and Jake Oettinger amongst a few others. However, fortunately for the Leafs, they don't need a goaltender to assume 60+ starts and have comfortably rolled with a 1A/1B tandem for the last several seasons.
Samsonov was on track for more starts last year with Murray being sidelined as often as he was but he himself dealt with injuries, which afforded Kallgren and Woll a closer look. He has never reached that pinnacle in his short career and don't look for him to get to that point this year either, especially with how comfortable the Leafs are in Joseph Woll's game.
A safe assumption would be that Samsonov - if healthy - starts 50 games with Woll getting into the remaining slate of games. The youngster is more than capable of handling a larger load this season and could very well be priming himself for the starter's position in 2024-25 - but let's focus on 2023-24 first.
Similarly to Murray and Samsonov, Woll has also dealt with his fair share of injuries but wherever he's played, however many games he's received, he has shined bright. In just 7 games this season he carried a 6-1-0 record with a 2.16 G.A.A. and a .932 SV% at the NHL-level, while going 16-4-1 with the Toronto Marlies with a 2.37 G.A.A and a .927 SV%.
At Boston College he appeared in 34 of 40 games in his first season in 2016-17, 30 games the following season, and 37 in his final year in 2018-19. Woll has 81 games of AHL experience under his belt since 2019-20 and is primed for his first full season with the Maple Leafs after a successful second stint in 2022-23 that included a post-season win against the Florida Panthers with the series on the line.
Woll played his first game of the season against the Columbus Blue Jackets in what turned out be a very disappointing defeat and effort from the guys in front of him, nevertheless, the youngster still made 36 saves.
He then won 6 consecutive games to finish off his regular season against Montreal, Calgary, Nashville, Columbus, Tampa Bay, and the New York Rangers, including a 45-save performance against the Lightning. If the injury bug follows Samsonov this year, the Leafs have an able-bodied backup in Woll to assume important starts down the stretch without having to worry about adding a starter via trade or free agency.
Under contract for one more season beyond 2023-24 at a measly cap hit of $766,667 and with how the Samsonov extension followed through, this is most definitely the rookie goaltender's time to shine and try to stake his claim for a larger role, not just during the season, but potentially into the playoffs and beyond.
As for the present day, Samsonov will be given every opportunity to shine as the 1A starter but the Leafs and their fanbase should feel very comfortable with either goaltender tending the twine on any given night. In closing, if Woll makes it into 32 games for the Leafs this season, I can see him posting a 22-7-3 record with something in the range of a .918 sv% and a 2.45 GAA. These marks are certainly attainable if Woll comes into the season with a similar focus to what he brought last year.
| POLL | ||
29 JUILLET | 223 ANSWERS With Murray finally out of the picture, what are the expectations for Woll's rookie season? Will Joseph Woll's save percentage in 2023-24 be better or worse than .918? | ||
| Better | 156 | 70 % |
| Worse | 67 | 30 % |
| List of polls | ||
