The positives and negatives in a contract year for Mitch Marner
Contract years either bring out the best or the worst for players and with Mitch Marner often responding poorly to pressure, it could be a very long season for the Maple Leafs.
Last year, the Toronto Maple Leafs were littered with constant questions regarding the status of William Nylander and his possible extension. The media had a field day almost every chance they got until the Leafs finally made the announcement in the middle of January.
Contract years are a big deal for players in all sports for either bringing out the best or the worst in some them, and last year the Leafs were introduced to the elite-side of William Nylander. He scored 21 goals and 54 points in just 37 games leading up to the extension and only went 4 games without recording a single point during that stretch. The Maple Leafs benefitted from that surge greatly as they posted a 20-10-7 record to start the year.
The difference between Marner's upcoming contract season to Nylander's 2023-24 campaign is that an extension was almost always in the cards for the latter. As for Marner, there are still questions regarding his standing on the club and whether or not they even want to keep him beyond the 2024-25 season.
Heading into the off-season, Marner's name popped up almost every day by almost every insider within the sport because they believed that the Leafs needed to make a change from the norm. However, Brad Treliving stuck to his guns, held onto Marner, and didn't even approach the winger to waive his NMC for a possible deal. The Leafs want to roll with the core one more time and both sides seem more than okay with the idea of going into the season without a contract extension.
Beyond the obvious issue of how much Marner will command, there's always the possibility that he has a down-season and his value drops to a more tasteful AAV.
The odds are stacked against that idea considering his worst points-per-game average was 0.79 during his rookie season. Since 2018-19, Marner has 153 goals and 509 points in 417 games, including seasons with 97 and 99 points, respectively. Not to mention that the success of the Maple Leafs is largely correlated to Marner's production so a down-season for the 27-year-old could have disastrous repercussions for the organization in 2024-25.
On the flip side, if Marner finally reaches the 100-point mark for the first time in his career, it will more or less push the Leafs over the hump in the regular season and keep his value closer to Auston Matthews than Nylander in regards to his upcoming contract negotiations.
However, his mettle will be tested with how he produces in the post-season. If Marner finally proves his doubters wrong, not only would that mean individual success but that would also correlate to team success and potential advancement in the playoffs.
Either way, the Leafs will be playing with fire this year, since they will not be moving him before his contract expires. Unless something drastic happens from now to the trade deadline, Marner will be a Maple Leaf on an expiring contract heading into the playoffs.
If he performs admirably under the scrutiny and limelight in the city of Toronto, the Leafs might not have a choice but to meet his demands. However, if he crumbles and dishes out a quiet season in respect to his point production, he will need to reconsider his contract demands or find a new home entirely.
Source for Mitch Marner's statistics: Hockey-Reference
Mitch Marner stats and bio
| POLL | ||
AOUT 5 | 1614 ANSWERS The positives and negatives in a contract year for Mitch Marner Should the Leafs consider a contract extension with Marner? | ||
| No, play out the season and see what happens | 454 | 28.1 % |
| Yes, losing Marner for nothing would be a disaster | 894 | 55.4 % |
| I'm fine either way | 266 | 16.5 % |
| List of polls | ||
