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Back-to-back losses costly for Leafs in the Atlantic Division standings; here's the current outlook

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Mike Armenti
January 16, 2023  (10:07)
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This weekend, the Leafs suffered their second consecutive loss and have now put themselves in a very tough spot when it comes to their spot in the Atlantic Division. At points during the season, it seemed as though the Boston Bruins were within reach. However, now that we're over the half-way hump, the Leafs burning a pair of very winnable road games with a flat effort against Detroit and choking away a pair of leads against Boston, the Buds are now 11 points back on the Bruins, which equates to 5.5 games back - and the Bruins also have two games in hand on the Leafs.

Not only are the Leafs already facing a substantial uphill battle in terms of trying to catch the Bruins, but thanks to their losses to Detroit and Boston, the Leafs are now also in jeopardy of being caught by the Tampa Bay Lightning, who currently sit just 4 points back of the Buds, with 3 games in hand. The Bolts are also on a roll, having won their last 3 straight.

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Thankfully for the Buds, after the top 3, there's a significant drop off in competition in the Atlantic. A cluster of Buffalo, Florida and Detroit sit 4th, 5th and 6th with 44, 44 and 43 points, respectively - well back of the Leafs' 59 points. However, there is still a lot at stake for the Leafs, who now face the possibility of meeting Tampa in round one without the luxury of having home ice advantage.

The Leafs' road record (11-8-3) is largely to blame for their current position. Of course, their 1-2-2 record on their Western Conference road swing back in October against Winnipeg, Vegas, San Jose, Los Angeles and Anaheim didn't do them any favours, leaving 6 additional points on the table. In fact, had the Leafs' road record been a little closer to their home record (15-3-4), they could have as much as 68 points right now, which would put them just 2 points back of the Bruins for first in the division.

There's also the problem of the Buds coming back down to Earth over their past 10 games. Their 5-4-1 record over their last 10 is 4th in the Atlantic Division over that run. Their 2-game losing skid is currently the worst in the division as well. Thankfully, after some tougher matchups against Florida and Winnipeg this week, the Buds will finish off the January schedule with a slew of winnable games against the Canadiens, Islanders, Rangers, Senators and Capitals. Their game against the Isles will kick off a 5-game homestand that will end with a grudge match against the Bruins on February 1st before the All-Star Break.

The bottom line is that the Leafs are going to have to start treating every game as a must-win from here on out if they want to have any chance of gaining some ground on the Bruins or avoiding having to play the Tampa Bay Lightning without the luxury of having home ice advantage.

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Back-to-back losses costly for Leafs in the Atlantic Division standings; here's the current outlook

Can the Leafs come back and catch the Bruins?

Yes, anything's possible5836.9 %
Not a chance9963.1 %
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