Breaking down the Carter Hart discourse and comparing the Flyers netminder to Ilya Samsonov
There appears to be a lot of discourse over recent reports that the Leafs may indeed be interested in acquiring 24-year-old Carter Hart from the Philadelphia Flyers this summer. Most of that discourse surrounds Hart not appearing to be a tangible improvement over Ilya Samsonov. You can make a case either way, but honestly, one of the biggest things that is being overlooked is the difference between the situation that Hart is in with Philly versus the one Samsonov is in with Toronto.
For starters, the Flyers are not exactly bursting at the seams with talent. As it stands, if the season were to begin today, their top six would consist of Kevin Hayes, Joel Farabee, Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton, Sean Couturier and Owen Tippett. Meanwhile, when you compare that to the likes of even just the Core 4 of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander in Toronto, it becomes pretty apparent that one of these things is not like the other pretty quickly.
Another aspect of this that people seem to be focusing on are Hart and Samsonov's records and peripheral stats from last season. Hart went 22-23-10 last season with a .907 SV% and a 2.94 GAA. Meanwhile, Samsonov went 27-10-5 with a .919 SV% and a 2.33 GAA. Hart was pretty even keel, owning a .907 SV% both at home and on the road, whereas there was a lot more variance with Samsonov, who owned a .927 SV% at home and only a .907 SV% on the road. Hart was also the busier netminder, playing 55 games to Samsonov's 42.
It's a pretty tough stance to take in that Samsonov is clearly better than Hart because of their numbers alone while not taking into account that the Leafs were a strong defensive team, finishing 4th overall, while the Flyers were not so strong defensively and finished 26th overall. The question then becomes, if you were to take Carter Hart out of Philly and put him behind this much stronger Leafs team, does he become the better of the two?
Both Hart and Samsonov were pretty highly-touted goaltenders in their draft years. Samsonov was taken 22nd overall in the 2015 draft and was the first goalie off the board that year. Meanwhile, Hart was selected 48th overall in 2016 and was the first goaltender off the board in his draft class as well, albeit slighly lower in the draft.
You also have the Curtis Sanford impact to consider. Hart had a better 2021-22 season in Philly than Samsonov did in Washington. Both players played a similar number of games with Hart playing 45 and Samsonov playing 44, but Samsonov put up a .896 SV% that year, while Hart posted a .905 SV%. It wasn't until Samsonov arrived in Toronto and got to work with goalie coach Curtis Sanford that he was able to experience the type of success that he did this past season. I'd imagine that if given the opportunity to work with Sanford, Hart might experience a similar spike behind a far superior Leafs defense.
It might surprise you to learn that Carter Hart was not too far behind Samsonov in goals saved above expected this season. Samsonov ranked 10th in the league in this category with 18 goals saved above expected, while Hart ranked 15th, with 10.3 goals saved above expected. The two netminders were also very close in SV% on unblocked shots, with Hart boasting a .953 V%, while Samsonov boasted a .958 SV%.
Where Hart edges out Samsonov is in low danger unblocked shot attempt SV%, where he put up a .974SV% last season to Samsonov's .962 SV% in the same category. To simplify here, Hart allowed less soft goals than Samsonov did this past season.
These two goaltenders are both quality young pieces, but for those who have drawn a line in the sand and already made up their minds that Samsonov is the superior option - who knows, you may be right, you may be wrong. But the fact of the matter is that Hart is taking a lot of unfair criticism because of the struggles of a poorly-built Flyers team. If the Leafs do indeed trade for Hart, a potential franchise goaltender, I'll be taking a much more cautiously optimistic approach knowing the more favourable situation Hart would be coming into in Toronto versus what he'd be leaving in Philly. I'm keeping an open mind here. You should too - especially when it comes to a potentially supremely talented young goaltender.
| POLL | ||
JUIN 8 | 386 ANSWERS Breaking down the Carter Hart discourse and comparing the Flyers netminder to Ilya Samsonov Who do you feel is the better goaltender if you put them behind the same team in Toronto? | ||
| Ilya Samsonov | 222 | 57.5 % |
| Carter Hart | 164 | 42.5 % |
| List of polls | ||
