By the numbers, the Vasilevskiy vs Samsonov battle this season was closer than most even realize
Last season it was Jack Campbell who was opposite of Andrei Vasilevskiy in round 1. Neither of them were outstanding and ended the series with save percentages under .900. This season, it appears that Ilya Samsonov will be the guy to face Tampa's high-powered offence and duel Vasilevskiy, partially due to the health status of Matt Murray, but largely due to his consistently strong play.
Ahead of Game 1 on Tuesday, let's take a look at how Samsonov and Vasilevskiy compare to one another based on this year's numbers. As Vasilevskiy is arguably the best in the world, it's no surprise that he had more wins, saves and minutes played than Samsonov, but the underlying numbers suggest that Samsonov has been better this season. Vasilevskiy saved 10.1 goals above expected (9th overall) while Samsonov saved just 6.9 goals above expected which was still good enough for thirteenth. However, outside of goals saved above expected, Samsonov was superior to Vasilevskiy. Samsonov was ranked eighth in save percentage (.919), seventh in GAA (2.33), third in scoring chance save percentage (.882) and first in inner slot save percentage (.862). Vasilevskiy on the other hand, was ranked fourteenth (.915), nineteenth (2.65), seventeenth (.796) and twelfth (.821) in those same categories.
Vasilevskiy and the Bolts have not looked like their usual dominant selves, particularly lately and it would seem that if the Leafs can continue to get stable and reliable goaltending from Samsonov, they should be able to knock off the Lightning in round 1.
