The Leafs look much different on paper this season than they did last season, make no mistake about it. Many of the signings made were with the intent of becoming harder to play against and improving offensively. Unfortunately, they may have sacrificed a bit of the defensive side of things thus far with the additions of Ryan Reaves, John Klingberg, Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi.
Data analyst "J Fresh", from J Fresh Hockey, shared his projections for all 32 teams on Wednesday and while there are some wild swings expected to take place with his model in each division, one of the more surprising projected outcomes is how he views the Atlantic Division rounding out. Have a peek at the graphic provided in the link below:
As you can see, J Fresh is projecting Boston and Florida to both finish ahead of the Leafs with 104 points, while the Buds will finish around 103 points, per his model. He also has Detroit making the playoffs over Tampa, which would be quite the shocker.
The Leafs finished last season with 111 points with very little contributions from their bottom six and their blueline. Now, having added a number of more offensively-inclined options and with the likes of Matthew Knies and Nicholas Robertson also expected to factor into the offense in the middle six, I might even argue that the Leafs will produce more points than they did with the likes of Wayne Simmonds, Zach Aston-Reese, Noel Acciari, Alexander Kerfoot and others who were lower in the lineup last season. Not only that, but if John Klingberg can turn to form and pot 50 points for the Leafs this season, that will be another offensive threat on a blueline that hasn't been the most productive offensively over the past few seasons, aside from Morgan Rielly.
Really, for me, I don't see the Leafs finishing 8 points below where they did last season. If anything, the changes in the Atlantic Division, especially in Tampa and Boston, might give the Leafs a leg up on the competition. Perhaps this is the year that they win the Atlantic and receive a first round matchup against a Wild Card team next playoffs. Who knows?
