Galaxy braining a Jake Oettinger heist by Leafs GM Kyle Dubas; yes it is a possibility, no it's not a likely one
I think we all know by now that the Leafs' number one priority this summer is figuring out who is going to tend the goal next year and beyond. There has been a myriad of suggestions that range anywhere from "run it back with Soup and Mrazek" to "trade for John Gibson" to "sign a pair of goalies in free agency this summer". There is, however, another option. One that is WAY more fun for Leafs fans.
On Wednesday, Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli shared a list of the top-7 most likely candidates for an offer sheet. Among them, sitting in the #2 spot, is Dallas Stars netminder Jake Oettinger.
Now, obviously, the Stars are VERY high on "Otter", and for good reason. His play during this most recent postseason (.954 sv%) was enough to almost earn him legend status in and of itself. He's just 23 years of age and has his entire career ahead of him. What's scary is that he'll only continue to get better with time and seasoning.
Seravalli listed the Leafs among the teams who should have the most interest in trying to pry Oettinger away from Dallas, along with Edmonton, Montreal, Seattle, New Jersey, Buffalo and multiple others. Now obviously, with any offer sheet, the player himself has to be willing to sign it. The other thing to factor in here is that offer sheets are frowned upon by GM's from around the league, so if you do extend an offer sheet to another team's player, you run the risk of being blacklisted among NHL GM's and trading can become increasingly difficult.
Then there's the matter of the team whose player has signed an offer sheet having an opportunity to match said offer sheet. The compensation for an offer sheet varies based on the cap hit, but teams need to own their own picks to gain eligibility to sign a player to an offer sheet in a certain range.
As of this moment, the Leafs own their own 1st and 3rd round picks next summer, which means they could offer Oettinger anywhere between $4,201,489 to $6,302,230 per season. In order to be eligible to increase their offer to the $6,302,231 to $8,402,975 range and make it tougher on the Dallas Stars to match, the Leafs would have to re-acquire their 2023 2nd rounder from Seattle (from the Blackwell, Giordano trade). The other issue here is that the Leafs are not exactly bursting at the seams with cap space, so if they did push to sign Oettinger to something ridiculous like 7 years at $8.4M per season, they'd be looking at having to move out one of the "Core 4".
There is, however, another option here - one that we can thank Brian Burke for. Does anyone remember the Phil Kessel trade? Well, this is how Burkie got the ball rolling, since the Bruins didn't want to trade Kessel. If the Leafs really want to pressure the Stars on the Oettinger offer sheet front, they need only pull off a trade with Seattle to re-acquire their 2nd round pick in next year's draft and then threaten an offer sheet that Stars GM Jim Nill may be hesitant to match. Something in the $7M-$8M range on a long term deal. You use that leverage to swing a deal that sees the Stars properly compensated, with a bevy of young, quality prospects and high draft picks, rather than the 1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks that would have otherwise been their compensation from the offer sheet, and then turn around and sign Oettinger (pending RFA, no arbitration rights) to a more moderate deal - something say in the 5 years at $5M range.
Yes, the Stars do have $19.5M in cap space, but they have no goalies signed for next season, Jason Robertson needing a very large extension and they will also have to either extend John Klingberg or go out and find a right-shot D replacement for their top 4. In addition, there are holes that need to be filled in their middle six with Namestnikov, Radulov (heading back to Russia) and Raffl all on expiring contracts.
We know that Klingberg's ask is in the neighborhood of $8M per season, but let's assume the Stars can talk him down to $7M AAV. Robertson is going to make every penny of $6.5M-$7M per season on a long term deal, or likely pretty close to what Brayden Point signed for in Tampa a few years back when he bridged at $6.75M per season. Robertson has outproduced Point over the last two seasons combined. So right there, that's presumably $13.75M of their $19.5M already tied up. If a team really wanted to offer Oettinger a $56M contract at age 23, I'm sure he'd jump at the chance to sign that offer sheet, since his career earnings total less than $2M at current time - and in that scenario, it's not something that the Stars could afford to match. If they did, they'd be looking at losing multiple pieces in other areas.
It's WAY outside the box, and I'm not sure Kyle Dubas is the type of GM to resort to those types of relationship-destroying tactics, but who knows? If it's all in the name of winning a Stanley Cup and ending the league's longest drought, maybe he and Brendan Shanahan choose to be a little more bold and ruthless than they have been in the past. I'm not holding my breath, but it is a viable option.
| POLL | ||
JUIN 29 | 294 ANSWERS Galaxy braining a Jake Oettinger heist by Leafs GM Kyle Dubas; yes it is a possibility, no it's not a likely one Should the Leafs use the Burke-Kessel tactic to leverage a trade for Jake Oettinger? | ||
| 100% | 89 | 30.3 % |
| No, way too risky | 60 | 20.4 % |
| Go for it, the time is now | 93 | 31.6 % |
| It will never happen in 1000 years | 52 | 17.7 % |
| List of polls | ||
