If the Leafs want to have any hope of finding success in the playoffs, the stats tell us that one player needs to go
During the regular season, the Leafs are one of the league's absolute best teams on any given night. Why? Well, a brief look at the roster would reveal no less than 4 or 5 guys who can absolutely sway the outcome of a game when they come to play. Mitch Marner is certainly one of those players. However, when the playoffs come around each and every year, it's almost like a switch flips and the team beats themselves mentally, allowing their opponents to beat them on the scoresheet.
Now, granted, hockey is a team game. There's really no one team in the league who has one or two guys that can carry a team to a championship. There are a lot of role players who end up being difference-makers - especially in the playoffs. Having said that, if your star players don't show up, it can absolutely bury your team. This is what we've experienced with the Leafs over the last number of years.
For Mitch Marner, in specific, the demands are high. There is a lot of pressure to perform when the games matter after he raked the Leafs over the coals during his contract negotiations to get every penny that he could. Marner is on the books for $10.903M per season through the 2024-25 season. There's no question that the Leafs are getting their money's worth in the regular season. Unfortunately, they're being robbed blind in the playoffs by Marner and his lack of execution in potential series clinching games.
Stretching back to 2018-19, Marner has produced 0 goals, 1 primary assist and 2 secondary assists in 10 potential series clinching games, totaling just 3 points. He has exceeded 20:50 in ice time in all 10 of those games. He's seeing plenty of ice time and he's an all-situations player, so why then does he produce so little when it matters? Because, mentally, he can't seem to take the pressure.
Stemming back FIVE playoffs of the last seven that the Leafs have played in, which is the same length of time that John Tavares has been with the organization (arguably the season in which the clock started ticking on their winning window), Marner has failed to be a game-breaker in games where he should have been an absolute difference-maker for this team. There's a very good chance, after 10 attempts, that Marner is a guy that the Leafs simply can't win with.
If I'm Kyle Dubas and if the Leafs lose this series to Florida (which is looking very likely right now), whether or not I'm back next year, I'm probably looking to move Marner at the draft. His full no-movement clause kicks in on July 1st, so as of that date, the Leafs will lose the ability to move him anywhere without his approval, which will severely reduce any return that the Leafs would be able to get for him. He will also have the option, at that point, to choose to play his remaining years of his contract out and leave as a UFA, much like how Tavares left Long Island, with nothing to show.
At the moment, Marner, as a superstar with term remaining on his deal, would fetch a handsome return and with no trade protection, the Leafs would likely have 31 teams putting in a call to at least hear the asking price. There would undoubtedly be a bidding war if the Leafs made him available.
Something is rotten with this core. As much as we all want to believe in them, there's just something that doesn't click for them in the playoffs. If the foundation needs shaking in Toronto, Marner is where I'd start - especially when you consider the amount of cap space it would free up and what type of assets the Leafs would receive in any deal involving one of their best players. Also, as we've seen with a number of teams in the past, sometimes shaking up the core is what it takes to find that next gear and take things to that next level come playoff time. Sometimes you have to take 1 step back so you can take 2 steps forward - and hey - they're not winning WITH him, so maybe they can win without him.
| POLL | ||
MAI 9 | 820 ANSWERS If the Leafs want to have any hope of finding success in the playoffs, the stats tell us that one player needs to go Do the Leafs need to move on from Mitch Marner? | ||
| Yes | 363 | 44.3 % |
| No | 259 | 31.6 % |
| That would be a huge mistake | 198 | 24.1 % |
| List of polls | ||
