Leafs Vs Lightning: A playoff preview
With the playoff picture solidified, all that remains is for the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs to determine who gets home ice between the two. The Leafs only need a single point to clinch home ice, while the Lightning would need to win out AND have the Leafs go pointless in their remaining games.
But today, we're here to look at a playoff matchup between these two teams.
The Toronto Maple Leafs currently sit 4th in the League and 2nd in the Atlantic Division with 111 points in 80 games. They have scored an absurd 307 goals, (second only to the Florida Panthers and their 332 goals). The Leafs have allowed 251 goals, the highest of any team in the top-10 of the NHL. However it balances out to a +56 goal differential.
The Leafs have a 29-8-2 record at home, slightly stronger than their 23-13-5 record on the road. They're 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, playing some solid hockey down the stretch despite some mounting injuries and some scheduled rest for several of their bigger players.
The Tampa Bay Lightning sit at 9th in the League and 3rd in the Atlantic with 106 points in 79 games. They have scored 279 goals and allowed 223 goals. Their goal differential sits just back of the Leafs with +52.
The Lightning are 26-8-6 at home and 23-14-2 on the road, very similar to the Leafs. They are 6-3-1 in their last 10 as they finish out the season relatively healthy.
Let's dig a little deeper into each team, shall we?
The Leafs have been a very very strong team this year. They have controlled play at an almost historic rate, putting up about 3.8 goals per game and playing some mostly solid defensive efforts throughout the year (some noted breakdowns acknowledged). However, this team has been sunk by some of the worst goaltending in the League since January 1st.
The Leafs have the best power play in the league, clocking in at 27% on the year. Their penalty kill is slightly worse at 7th in the League, with 82% on the year. As well, the Leafs lead the NHL with 14 short handed goals on the year.
The Leafs have had one of the best forward groups in the League this year. They have 6 50 point forwards, two highly effective scoring lines, a shutdown third line that frustrates with their skill and speed, and a fourth line with physicality and goal-scoring touch that has not been present in recent years.
The Leafs' defensive group has been solidified with the addition of Mark Giordano and the emergence of Timothy Liljegren as a top-4 NHL defenseman. While Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin have struggled with injury at times, the Leafs should have 8 NHL caliber defenders. This means that the days of guys like Martin Marincin as a playoff injury replacement are long gone.
The Leafs' largest problem this year has been in goal. They have an .899 sv% on the year, with Jack Campbell struggling mightily in his second year as starter. Petr Mrazek has had a year from hell, with injuries out of the gate and poor play upon his return that have turned Leafs' fans against him. Youngsters Erik Kallgren and Joseph Woll have played games and filled in admirably, but neither are seemingly ready for a full-time NHL backup job (and Woll has been hurt again anyways).
It's safe to say, that the Leafs' record has been affected by their substandard goaltending. Even with their problems, they're 4th in the NHL. With League average sv% this team would have been in the running for the president's trophy, if not running away with it entirely. It might be possible that the Leafs' below-average goaltending is a symptom of poor defensive play, however a stylistic mismatch in Mrazek and an injury plagued season for Jack Campbell would appear to be the most likely reasons. With Jack appearing to return to form as of late, the Leafs may be significantly better than their record shows.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are the two-time, defending Cup Champions. We all know that they're just short of cementing themselves as a true modern dynasty (some could argue they already are). They have elite talent up front, and elite talent on the backend, plus an elite puck stopper behind them all.
Despite all that, the Lightning have not been quite as elite as in previous years.
Their power play sits at 10th in the league, with 23.3%. Their PK, at 12th with 81%. Both of which sit back from the Leafs'.
Up front, Steven Stamkos has led the way with 97 points in 78 games. Nikita Kucherov has been on a similar pace, but has missed plenty of time due to injury. Brayden Point has had a down year, and the lack of depth has hurt the Bolts compared to years past. Deadline acquisition, Brandon Hagel, has not been as effective as hoped either. The Lightning are noticeably weaker up front than they have been in the past, though it should be noted that they are still not a pushover by any means.
On defense, Norris winner Victor Hedman, anchors a blue line that seems somewhat weaker at first glance than they have been previously. Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta, Mikhael Sergachev, Erik Cernak, Zach Bogosian, and youngster Callan Foote all give the Lightning a blue line that can hang with any in the league.
In goal, the Lightning have the clear best goalie on the planet. Andrei Vasilevsky is a game-changer, capable of completely taking over a series. Their backup is a resurgent Brian Elliot, providing the Lightning with goaltending depth that the Leafs simply do not have.
All in all, the Leafs match up quite well against the two-time champs. They are likely stronger up front and on special teams, and at the very least equal to the Lightning on D. The only clear advantage for the Lightning is in net, and Campbell proved last year that he could hang and play with the best of the best.
The biggest takeaway from the Lightning is that they are human for the first time in years. They don't have the absurd depth that they used to, and some of their key players are not producing what they are capable of. The Leafs have a very good chance to knock off the Cup Champions in the first round, despite the fact that they're the Cup Champions.
This year, it really comes down to goaltending. If we get playoff Jack from last year, the Leafs have the advantage. The Leafs are stronger or equal everywhere else, and have been better on special teams. The Leafs have a very good chance at winning this series. Unfortunately for them, they're the Leafs, so we'll have to wait and see.
| POLL | ||
AVRIL 26 | 322 ANSWERS Leafs Vs Lightning: A playoff preview How many games does the Leafs/Bolts series go? | ||
| 4 | 18 | 5.6 % |
| 5 | 24 | 7.5 % |
| 6 | 150 | 46.6 % |
| 7 | 130 | 40.4 % |
| List of polls | ||
