Leafs pending UFAs: Who stays and who goes?
With NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman having announced on Tuesday that it is more likely the salary cap only rises $1M for next season than jumping $2-3M as previously projected. The minimal rise will once again force a number of teams to let pending UFAs and possibly leave RFAs without a qualifying offer and forced to find new homes. However, it will also allow teams to find bargain deals the way Kyle Dubas did this summer with the likes of Ilya Samsonov, Zach Aston-Reese, Victor Mete and Jordie Benn.
With $12.7M in cap space to begin next off-season, and with only 9 players signed, Kyle Dubas and the rest of the Leafs' management group will have their work cut out for them. There is a very good chance we could see a slew of Marlies players make the Leafs out of camp next season to provide the Leafs with some additional cap flexibility along with the possibility of Jake Muzzin remaining on LTIR. However, with the uncertainty surrounding Muzzin, let's pretend the Leafs will only have $12.7M in cap space and look at which UFAs could stay and which ones could go.
Pending UFAs:
-Jordie Benn
-Michael Bunting
-Alex Kerfoot
-Pierre Engvall
-Justin Holl
-David Kampf
-Zach Aston-Reese
-Wayne Simmonds
The likeliest to not return on this list is Simmonds, unless he agrees to report to the Marlies. At this point, all he is doing is holding a roster spot, having played just 7 games for the Leafs so far this year. When he does play, it's minimal and aside from a physical presence doesn't bring much else to the lineup. Another "all but gone" UFA for the Leafs is Justin Holl. Holl drives many Leaf fans, including myself nuts most of the time, but since he started playing alongside Giordano, he has played very well. A key penalty killer for the Leafs who has been playing top-4 minutes at just $2M per season is due for a fairly hefty raise and one that the Leafs likely will not be able to afford. Thankfully, the Leafs have Conor Timmins available to replace him as he is an RFA. The emergence of Timothy Liljegren as a solid two-way defender will also help soften the blow of losing Holl.
For the right price, around their current contracts, the Leafs could very well bring back Jordie Benn and Zach Aston-Reese. Benn has struggled to stay healthy, but has played well when in the lineup while ZAR has finally found his groove alongside rookie Pontus Holmberg. He doesn't contribute a ton in the point department, but he's a physical presence on the forecheck and a very good defensive forward that has fit in well in the Leafs' bottom six. The same can be said for David Kampf, who is making just $1.5M this season. If the Leafs are able to keep his next contract around $2M, it would be well worth the investment. A defensive specialist that can win key faceoffs and kill penalties, Kampf has found a bit of an offensive upside, which was something Sheldon Keefe and Kyle Dubas believed he had when he was brought over from Chicago.
As for Alex Kerfoot, Pierre Engvall and Michael Bunting, each of them have a 50/50 chance of returning to the Leafs next season. At $3.5M for the season Kerfoot is the Leafs' "Swiss army knife". He plays all three forward positions, plays on the powerplay and kills penalties. Granted, he doesn't make the smartest or best decisions sometimes, he gives Keefe an abundance of flexibility with his lineup. After setting a career high it points last season with 51, Kerfoot has struggled mightily this year so far compared to the expectation. At 28, he will be looking for one final mid-length or long-term deal and depending on his asking price, could find himself in a new jersey next season.
After avoiding arbitration and signing a 1-year, $2.25M deal, Engvall had high expectations for himself, including scoring 20 goals. Through 28 games so far this season, he has just 5 and although he is a good penalty killer and defensive forward, his lack of physicality for someone that is 6'4 and 200+ pounds is something that needs to be addressed. He is an excellent skater, but the Leafs have plenty of those already, with more available to them in the AHL. If Engvall wants to stay in Toronto, he will have to consider taking the same value or less. As much as Dubas and Keefe have seen him grow, with the impending cap crunch, Marlies like Joey Anderson, Alex Steeves and Semeyon Der-Arguchintsev can do the same things he does for much less.
Last but not least, we have Michael Bunting who signed a 2-year deal worth $950K per season prior to the start of the 2021/22 season where he was nominated for the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year and put up 63 points. He found immediate chemistry with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner and now William Nylander he is currently on a 9 game point streak. He will be the most difficult to resign just based on his role and production and could very well chase the money like Zach Hyman and Jack Campbell did the past two off-seasons. Of course, there is always the "hometown" discount that more Toronto area players are willing to take nowadays, but how much of a discount Bunting would be willing to take is another question.
It will be another off-season full of changes for the Leafs next year with as many as 8 roster spots available to fill internally or through trade or free agency.
| POLL | ||
DECEMBRE 14 | 238 ANSWERS Leafs pending UFAs: Who stays and who goes? Will the Leafs bring back Holl and Kerfoot this summer? | ||
| Yes | 25 | 10.5 % |
| No | 115 | 48.3 % |
| Kerfoot yes, Holl no | 49 | 20.6 % |
| Holl yes, Kerfoot no | 49 | 20.6 % |
| List of polls | ||
