Pending UFA may be playing his way out of Toronto
The Leafs have not lost in regulation in over a month and are currently deadlocked with the New Jersey Devils for 2nd in the NHL standings, just 3 points behind the Boston Bruins for top spot in the league. While the Leafs have been the hottest team in hockey over the last month, the focus of the team and the fanbase continues to be on the playoffs and crushing the narrative that they can't win when it matters. Beyond that, the team is facing yet another summer of significant change. Just how much change will depend on how well they do in the postseason.
With Tuesday's announcement that the salary cap will likely remain pretty flat, there are some difficult choices facing the Buds, not the least of which is the play of Ilya Samsonov and Michael Bunting. While Samsonov remains a restricted free agent this summer, somewhat limiting his negotiating power, Bunting is a pending UFA and is currently making a case for himself for a substantial raise.
After posting 63 points in 79 games in his rookie season last year, Bunting is off to a very strong start in 2022-23, currently riding a 9-game point streak and 21 points in 30 games. While that's only a 57-point pace, Bunting has shown signs of life with 11 points over the last 9 games. Add to that the fact that his line mates in Auston Matthews and William Nylander are both playing at an elite level and it's not such a far-fetched notion that Bunting could exceed the 63 points that he put up last season.
Bunting's current $950K salary is easily affordable to the Leafs now, but the AAV on his next deal will be considerably higher. A quick glance at some of the wingers who produced in the same range that Bunting did last season are:
Claude Girioux ($6.5M AAV)
Taylor Hall ($6M AAV)
Andre Burakovsky ($5.5M AAV)
Teuvo Teravainen ($5.4M AAV)
Tyler Bertuzzi ($4.75M AAV)
The Leafs will almost certainly want to retain Samsonov, likely on a long-term deal, as the 25-year-old netminder is just now entering his prime. With some of the long-term deals we've seen for goaltenders recently, Samsonov's AAV could end up close to the $4.5M-$5M range - maybe slightly less due to the goalies playing less games if they plan to roll two 1A goaltenders moving forward. That doesn't leave a whole lot of money for another big contract.
Players are on a limited window with which to maximize their career earnings. Bunting took an absolute sweetheart deal to prove himself in Toronto. Now that he's done that, I think we're going to see a much loftier contract demand on his next deal. We could see Bunting command pretty close to what Zach Hyman did when he left a couple of seasons back - unless, of course, the Scarborough, ON native wants to take another sweetheart deal to remain at home.
This nearly flat cap announcement has really painted the Leafs into a corner.
| POLL | ||
DECEMBRE 14 | 380 ANSWERS Pending UFA may be playing his way out of Toronto Will Michael Bunting re-sign with the Leafs this summer? | ||
| Yes | 231 | 60.8 % |
| No, he'll price himself out of Toronto | 149 | 39.2 % |
| List of polls | ||
