Leafs state of the union; similar offense, defense and improved goaltending lead to some solid season predictions
Is it just me, or did August last about 2 seconds? The summer break is hurtling towards its end and, with that, a new season is about to begin for everyone's favourite hockey team. The Leafs will have a different look this season, with new names joining the lineup in depth roles and not one but two new goaltenders. As usual, Kyle Dubas has had a busy summer, and the work isn't done yet. He's still got Rasmus Sandin's contract to sort out and around $1.5M in cap space to clear, it varies based on who will actually be on the opening night roster.
The Leafs finished 4th overall in the NHL last season with a 54-21-7 record and a franchise record 115 points. That was good for 2nd in the Atlantic Division behind the Presidents Trophy winning Florida Panthers. Both impressive and concerning, the Leafs managed to pull this off despite horrific performances in goal by Petr Mrazek and, for every month except November, Jack Campbell. As we all know, 2nd place in the Atlantic Division matched them up with the 2 time defending Champs in Tampa. The Leafs were the better of the two teams during the 7-game series, but in the end, they couldn't overcome Andrei Vasilevskiy, the refs AND their own poor goaltending. Another great regular season, another first round exit. if this is your first season, welcome to life as a Leafs fan.
Now that we've had an entire summer to drown our sorrows and heal our broken hearts, we can look at what's next for Canada's team. We'll start in net and work our way through the roster from there.
Goaltending:
The Leafs have brought in a new goaltending tandem of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov. Both are extremely interesting cases. Murray is a 2-time Stanley Cup winner who had a couple rough seasons in Ottawa. He's a solid candidate for a bounce back season behind a Leafs defense that outclasses Ottawa's at every turn. Samsonov didn't have the season he wanted last season either and was let go without a qualifying offer by the Caps. He did perform pretty well in the playoffs, but couldn't get scoring support to get the job done against Florida. At just 25 years old, Samsonov hasn't even reached the age where most goaltenders hit their peak. If he can unlock the potential he's showed at points during his young career, he could be a long term option between the pipes for the Leafs.
My prediction: The tandem of Murray and Samsonov stumbles out of the gate, but finds their footing by November. Leafs finish top 10 in SV% on the season
Defense:
There is a huge question mark hanging over the Leafs D corps with Rasmus Sandin remaining unsigned. Probably the strangest part is that once he does sign, there isn't a clear path to a regular roster spot for him. Trading him isn't a great option either. He could fetch a solid return yes, but if Jake Muzzin gets injured again, the Leafs will be awfully thin on the left side. Until that situation gets sorted out, its extremely difficult to predict how the Leafs will do on defense this season. The good news is, the group will be strong no matter what. Rielly, Brodie, Girodano, Muzzin, Liljegren, Sandin, Holl, Benn, Mete is an extremely underrated D corps.
My prediction: The Leafs trade Holl and move one of Giordano or Muzzin to the right side to make room for Sandin on the roster to play his strong side.
Forwards:
The strongest part of the Leafs' roster is also the part that needs the most improvement. At the top of the linueup, you have the seemingly unstoppable Bunting-Matthews-Marner line. Don't fix what's not broken. They should and probably will run that line back. The second line could definitely stand to improve though. Tavares and Nylander were both good last season, but Tavares' goal scoring dropped off a cliff and the rotating cast of left wingers didn't help. Tavares having a healthy off season could be all that's needed to remedy the issue there. One of the several newcomers joining the lineup this season could be an option to try, most notably utility man Calle Jarnkrok. I don't think the Jarnkrok signing is getting enough attention here. It's very possible that Tavares and Nylander will be joined on the second line by Jarnkrok by the end of the season. Another interesting twist could be the late season addition of Matthew Knies, whose size and shot could be extremely helpful for the Leafs as they head into the playoffs.
My prediction: Matthews hits 65 goals. Tavares bounces back with an 85-point season and at least 30 goals. Leafs offense remains lethal.
Of course, this all means nothing if the Leafs can't get over the hump in the playoffs. I think there will be some serious poetic justice this season. The Leafs are likely to finish atop the Atlantic, with Florida and Tampa are likely to finish 2nd and 3rd. Its entirely possible, even likely, that the Leafs match up against the Bruins in round 1. If that happens, the Leafs will finally slay the dragon, exercise their playoff demons and, at the very least, make the Eastern Conference Finals. I'm not planning any parades just yet, but if you don't go into the season believing the team can win, why are you even watching?
