Nearly a quarter of the way through the season, here are your Leafs' overachievers and underachievers
The Leafs have had a very up and down start to the 2022-23 season through the team's first 16 games. The year started with what can only be described as an underwhelming 4-4-2 record through 10 games. their 4-1-1 record since is much more reflective of the team that we saw last season, but in terms of the actual on-ice performance, there's no denying that these Leafs have not been nearly as dominant as last year's iteration of the team.
As with any team, the Leafs have both some overachievers and some underachievers. Now boasting an 8-5-3 record, here are a few of the players who have surpassed early expectations and some who have not quite played up to par this season.
Overachievers:
John Tavares - 8G, 8A, 16P in 16GP
At 32 years-of-age, John Tavares was on pace to exceed his previous career best of 88 points this season. Over the last 5 games, however, Tavares has come back down to earth, recording just 2 points in his last 5 games, dropping him to the point-per-game mark. Tavares has produced at a hair below a point per game in each of his last 3 seasons, so being above the point-per-game mark for much of the season certainly lands him in the overachiever category. Tavares has been the portrait of consistency for much of his career though, so we shouldn't expect too much regression.
Ilya Samsonov - 6-2-0, 2.23 GAA, .921 SV%
A quick glance at Samsonov's career averages will tell you that he's well above his median this season. Part of that, I'm sure, is from playing behind a Leafs' defense that is undeniably better than what he's used to in Washington - and that's not just limited to the defensemen either. The Leafs' total team defense is better and the team boasts plenty of strong two-way forwards who bust their humps to get back and help out. Coming into this year, Samsonov's best season, statistically speaking, was his rookie campaign in 2019-20. That year, he posted a 2.55 GAA and a .913 SV% across 26 games. This year, he's blowing those numbers out of the water. We're hoping that the other shoe doesn't drop and that Samsonov can maintain the level of play that he has shown through his first 8 appearances this season, but we should be cognizant of what the averages are here and temper our expectations a bit.
Underachievers:
Auston Matthews - 7G, 8A, 15P in 16 GP
It's strange to see Auston Matthews with more assists than goals, because, well, it's happened precisely zero times in his NHL career. Matthews is currently below half a goal per game, which is extremely uncharacteristic. He's also failing to produce at 5v5 this season - something that has not been a problem for Matthews in his NHL career, historically. As a back-to-back Rocket Richard Trophy winner, we can bank on Auston turning things around. With just 1 goal in his last 4 games, the reigning league MVP just needs a little puck luck and I'm sure that confidence and that swagger will return. So too will the goal production. Matthews's shooting percentage, collectively, is 16.1%. Right now, his shooting percentage is a career-low 9.6%. That doesn't seem likely to continue. Not for a guy who can score like Matthews can score.
Pierre Engvall - 2G, 1A, 3P in 15 GP
Engvall has shown steady progression throughout his young NHL career. His path to the NHL was not an easy one, but the former 7th round pick (2014) has defied the odds and has become a full-time NHLer. At 6'5, 220 lbs, Engvall is built like a legit power forward and can skate like the wind. Last season, he scored a career-high 15 goals and 35 points, playing mostly 3rd and 4th line minutes. All signs pointed towards a breakout season in 2022-23, especially with Engvall stating this summer that he believes he can be a consistent 20-goal scorer in the NHL. Well, things haven't worked in his favour so far and a lot of it is due to the fact that he doesn't play like a 6'5 player. He seldom engages physically and fails to use his size to his advantage. With his foot speed and the shot that he possesses, Engvall could be a real x-factor for the Leafs. However, his shooting percentage is a career-low 8% this season and his 3 points ties him for last among Leafs forwards who have played at least 5 games.
Honourable mentions for underachievers: Alex Kerfoot, Michael Bunting
There are a few more players who I'm sure you could make a strong case for as overachievers and plenty, I'm sure, for underachievers, but these are the main ones that stand out through 16 games so far. This Leafs team is capable of much more than what they've shown this season and we can only hope that they figure things out and begin to play to their potential. A move or two might be warranted but may not be completely necessary as long as the underachievers on the team can elevate their game.
| POLL | ||
NOVEMBRE 14 | 295 ANSWERS Nearly a quarter of the way through the season, here are your Leafs' overachievers and underachievers Who is the biggest underachiever in Toronto this season? | ||
| Auston Matthews | 74 | 25.1 % |
| Pierre Engvall | 70 | 23.7 % |
| Alex Kerfoot | 38 | 12.9 % |
| Michael Bunting | 113 | 38.3 % |
| List of polls | ||
