One detail stands above all the others as a great indicator that a Matt Murray bounce back season is coming

When teams who are widely considered as legit contenders lead something in any of these models, they're often celebrated for it. However, when the Leafs lead something when using these models, the discussions tend to go right to discrediting the source.

The Leafs' defense last season was vastly improved from years prior and there's evidence to suggest that they're also going to be very strong again this season - especially since much of the same D corps will be returning. Just how good were they? Well, last season's D corps led the entire league in total combined Goals Above Replacement AND total combined Expected Goals Above Replacement.

This information is relevant for another reason. It serves to show that the Leafs' brand new tandem is in good hands and that a bounce back for both Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov appears favourable.

When considering the likelihood of Matt Murray bouncing back, one only needs to look at the Senators' GAR and xGAR stats from last season. The Sens ranked 28th and 26th in GAR and xGAR, respectively.

Frankly, at this point, it wouldn't be surprising if Murray had a huge bounce back season with the Leafs. It would be surprising if he didn't.