One specific stat points to the fact that home ice is the key to the Leafs beating Tampa in round one

Over the last two seasons, the Leafs hold the NHL's best home record. With 78 games played at Scotiabank Arena, the Leafs are 56-15-7, good for 119 points and a .763 points percentage. Tampa is second, 6 points behind the Leafs with two less games played at home since the start of last season. They have a 51-14-11 record with 113 points. As you can see from the chart below.

Unfortunately home ice advantage doesn't provide any advantage when it comes to officiating, as we saw in Game 7 last year, but it does come with a crowd that can help change momentum or give the team a jolt of energy when they're sluggish. That change is exactly what happened in Game 7 last year. After Tampa took the lead, the crowd got behind the Leafs and gave them the shot in the arm they needed to dominate play the rest of the game. Unfortunately, a disallowed goal on a rarely-called pick play negated a John Tavares goal and sent Justin Holl to the box. In the end, that one goal was the difference.

This time around, however, the Leafs have only gotten better as a team defensively, while the Bolts have gotten worse, with the subtractions of Ryan McDonagh and Ondrej Palat. If the Leafs land home ice for round 1, we could very well see the series end before it ever gets to a Game 7.

As a side note, is anyone else blown away by the fact that all 5 of the top home teams over the last two seasons are all in the Eastern Conference? It's even crazier that 4 of them are the top-4 teams in the Atlantic Division.