The Leafs have a problem that needs solving sooner rather than later; 8 pending RFAs on the team have arbitration rights
As we approach the midway point in the season, teams have likely already begun weighing the pros and cons of using pending UFAs and pending RFAs as trade bait to acquire picks and prospects or simply retaining the UFAs as "own rentals". In the case of the RFAs, these players are still under team control beyond this season regardless of whether or not a deal is reached by July 1st. That is, of course, as long as they're tendered a qualifying offer.
As we saw this past summer, if teams elect not to tender a restricted free agent a qualifying offer, that player is then eligible to become an unrestricted free agent and sign with any team he pleases. One of the biggest reasons why teams allow these RFAs to become UFAs and sign with a team of their choosing is because of arbitration. When a player becomes arbitration-eligible, if they choose to file for arbitration, they can plead their case to a neutral third party, along with the team, with the award being out of the control of both the team and the player. Once the arbitrator decides on the award for the player, the team then has to decide whether or not to accept the deal or decline. If the team declines the award, then the player has the right to declare himself a UFA.
The one kicker here is that the team can only walk away from the arbitration award if it is above $3.5M. If a player is awarded an amount less than $3.5M, the team has no choice but to accept the deal awarded by the arbitrator. It is for this reason why teams who may be close to the salary cap may choose not to qualify a player - to avoid getting stuck with an award they may not be able to afford. Obviously, by now, you know where I'm going with this.
With the Leafs already in a bit of a cap squeeze, they will be facing the possibility of having as many as 8 of their restricted free agents filing for arbitration this summer. Those players are Pontus Holmberg, Conor Timmins, Victor Mete, Ilya Samsonov, Adam Gaudette, Erik Kallgren, Joey Anderson and Mac Hollowell. Naturally, with most of these players likely to receive awards less than $3.5M if they do go to arbitration, the Leafs could be stuck with a lot of extra salary dollars that they weren't necessarily planning on carrying, which could force other players out. Of course, most teams and players reach deals before the arbitration decisions have been announced, so much of this may be all for not. But, there are plenty of examples of times where players ride arbitration all the way through, forcing the team to make a difficult decision.
The Leafs also have 10 pending UFAs on the roster that they'll have to make some decisions on, along with 3 RFAs who do not have arbitration rights. Simply put, Kyle Dubas (or his replacement, as he has not yet received a contract offer from the Leafs) and company have their work cut out for them this summer. That's 21 players who need contracts - and that doesn't include the contract extensions that both Auston Matthews and William Nylander are eligible to sign this summer.
Naturally, there will be plenty of roster turnover - guys whom the team had no intention of keeping around beyond this year. Whether they move some of them at the deadline this year or allow them to walk in the summer remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure. The Leafs will undoubtedly look to open conversations with their RFAs who do have arbitration rights here fairly soon to determine where their heads are at in terms of dollars and cents. If the asks are unreasonable, we could see 1 or more of these names shipped off at the deadline or left without a qualifying offer this summer to avoid having to shell out a significant amount of salary that they weren't planning on having to shell out.
| POLL | ||
4 JANVIER | 182 ANSWERS The Leafs have a problem that needs solving sooner rather than later; 8 pending RFAs on the team have arbitration rights How many of these guys will the Leafs trade or leave without a qualifying offer? | ||
| 0-3 | 84 | 46.2 % |
| 4-6 | 85 | 46.7 % |
| 7-8 | 13 | 7.1 % |
| List of polls | ||
