The Murray deal is not nearly as bad for the Leafs as people seem to think it is and here's why
Well, the verdict is in on new Leafs goaltender Matt Murray and depending on which jury you listen to, he's either going to be the saviour in Toronto or he's going to be the move that gets Kyle Dubas fired.
Look, I get it. Murray was not the sexiest name out there. I get that people were holding onto hope for Darcy Kuemper (all but committed to Washington), Jack Campbell (all but committed to Edmonton), John Gibson (declared that he has no interest in playing for the Leafs) or Connor Hellebuyck (LOL). The fact of the matter is that, according to a wide variety of reports from reporters from around the league, the Leafs' options were scarce. Murray may have simple been the best of what was available.
In terms of what the Leafs are getting in Matt Murray, well, they're getting a 2-time Stanley Cup Champion. They're also getting a goalie who struggled to produce quality numbers behind a porous Ottawa Senators defense, although a lot of his underlying numbers are actually not too bad. But what the Leafs are REALLY getting in Matt Murray is a goalie who is capable of winning when it matters. His career .921 SV% in the playoffs is evidence of that. They're also getting a goalie who the GM, head coach and head of goaltending are all familiar with and someone whom they've been able to bring out the best of in the past.
What the detractors really seem to be hung up on with Murray coming to Toronto is the 25% retained salary. Most had been preparing themselves mentally for Murray at $3.125M per season, so naturally, Murray at $4.68M is a bit underwhelming. Still, his cap his really doesn't matter. If he plays well, the Leafs will have a good goalie with two Stanley Cup rings on his record. If he plays poorly, the deal would have looked bad regardless of the cap hit attached to him.
With all of that said, are the Leafs *really* in bad shape if the Murray deal doesn't work out? Well, not really. The Sens basically gave them the necessary pieces to move him again (3rd and 7th round picks) for free. Whether or not they'd have to retain salary probably depends on how bad Murray's play really is, but since there will be less term remaining on his deal at the time and a large chunk of his remaining salary already paid, I'm not sure it would be too difficult to flip him elsewhere.
Another way for the Leafs to rid themselves of Murray if he flounders would be to simply buy him out next summer. The Leafs would face far less of a buyout penalty than the Sens would have this summer, as cap specialist Earl Schwartz outlines here:
As Schwartz pointed out in his thread as well is the fact that with the Leafs going after Murray, who has 2 years remaining on his deal, they won't be locked into a longer term, larger money deal with someone like, say, Darcy Kuemper or Jack Campbell when Auston Matthews and William Nylander come due for new contracts in a couple of years, leaving more money to play with at the negotiating table.
As upset as people are about having Matt Murray at $4.68M for 2 years, imagine how mad they'd be if they were locked into a 35+ Darcy Kuemper at $6.5M per season and it cost the team Auston Matthews and/or William Nylander.
